Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) 2018 Annual Report Review for the First Quarter of 2019
Matters: The company published 18 annual reports and 19 quarterly reports, and the company realized revenue of 93 in 18 years.
82 trillion, an increase of 47.
48%; net profit attributable to mother 14.
67 trillion, with an increase of 54.
01%, in line with previous performance indicators.
Of which 18Q4 realized income of 24.
6.6 billion, an increase of 63.
83%, net profit attributable to mothers2.
03 trillion, with an increase of 38.
1Q1 achieved revenue of 40.
5.8 billion, an increase of 20.
12%; net profit attributable to mother 8.
7.7 billion, an increase of 22.
Retrospective adjustments caused 18Q4 revenue to accelerate month-on-month, and the performance of cash flow indicators was dazzling.
The company achieved revenue of 24 in 18Q4.
6.6 billion, an increase of 63.
83% QoQ (+30.
58%) accelerated significantly, and the growth rate in 19Q1 slowed down (+20.
12%), mainly because the Group’s Xinghuacun brand was merged into the joint-stock company in December, and readjusted, resulting in a higher base in 18Q1.
At the same time, considering the quarterly differences caused by the Spring Festival, 18Q4 + 19Q1 revenue growth also increased by 47.
54%, maintaining a high growth momentum.
In terms of different products, middle- and high-priced liquors in 2018 achieved income 57.
39 trillion, with an increase of 47.
44%, of which the growth rate of blue and white series is expected to be more than 60%, Laobaifen is about 27%, and Panama is about 27%.
Low-priced liquor realized income 32.
300,000 yuan, an increase of 47.
Realizing income from formula wine3.
39 trillion, with an increase of 51.
14%, sales reached 5159.
19 tons, an increase of 31.
Among them, Bfen increased by about 36% each year.
In 19Q1, the blue-and-white and Buffin series grew faster, and the tasks were better in the first quarter.
By region, the province realized income in 201852.
8.7 billion, an increase of 37.44%; realized income outside the province 40.
21 trillion, the same increase of 63.
56%, with an income share of 42.
86%, the same increase of 2.
The company’s 2018 advance accounts were 16.
53 trillion, with an increase of 7.
41 trillion, a ring increase of 8.
660,000 yuan, the account received in advance in 19Q1 was 12.
03 trillion, ring minus 4.
The company’s 18Q4 and 19Q1 repayments were 29.
42 ppm and 56.
6.3 billion yuan, an increase of 50%.
26% and 153.
Net operating cash flows were 6.
1.7 billion and 25.
0.5 billion, an increase of 354.
94% and 842.
99%, the cash flow indicator is very dazzling.
19Q1 expenses increased, operating capacity remained stable.
The company’s gross profit margins in 2018 and 19Q1 were 66.
63pct) and 71.
99pct), among which the decrease in gross profit margin in 2018 was mainly due to the merger of the Group’s personalized brands in the early 18th year with the joint-stock company. This series of products are mainly based on low-end wines, which lowered the overall gross profit margin.
The selling expense ratio was 17 in 2018 and 19Q1.
55 points) and 20.
Among them, the proportion of advertising fee income in 2018 was 7.
81%, same minus 0.
The management expense ratios are 6.
21 points) and 3.
25pct).The business tax and surcharge are 19 respectively.
14% and 13.
43%, same as minus 1.
36 points and 2.
91pct, of which the consumption tax restructuring in 201815.
84%, the same minus 0.
To sum up, the company’s net profit margin was 16 in 2018.
63%, unchanged from last year, with a net profit margin of 23 in 19Q1.
25%, same minus 0.
Intensify the development of incremental markets such as East China and actively seek in-depth cooperation with China Resources.
In 2019, the company clearly pointed out that the development concept has shifted from the emphasis on market sales performance to the emphasis on market quality, eliminating the early performance of the market.
Continuously optimize the market layout, increase the expansion of incremental markets such as East China, “cross the Yangtze River, cross East China, and occupy Shanghai”, use the East China market to drive other incremental markets outside the Shanxi market, and accelerate the nationwide layout.
Strengthen brand building efforts, comprehensively upgrade the “walking Fen Jiu”, domestic and foreign markets make concerted efforts to continue to promote the company’s brand power.
At the same time, we will accelerate the reform and unify to achieve the overall listing. It is expected that the overall listing of the group will be achieved this year.
In addition, we actively strengthened in-depth cooperation with China Resources and actively coordinated channels and resources with China Resources in the company’s weak areas. At present, both parties have conducted in-depth exchanges on management strategies.
The company will promote sales of the company’s products through Snowflake’s channels and increase sales in China Resources Vanguard.
We believe that the company’s cooperation with China Resources has taken a substantive step. In the future, the cooperation between the two parties will be deepened. It is expected that the incremental increase in weak markets will be more obvious.
Investment suggestion: Considering that the company’s development philosophy has shifted from performance-oriented to quality-oriented, it is effective to eliminate the early growth of the market, so that healthy and healthy growth is worth looking forward to.
We add the 21-year forecast and slightly adjust the 19-20 EPS to 2.
10 (Originally predicted as 2.
84) yuan, corresponding to PE is 26/21/18 times.
Considering the company’s good healthy growth momentum, maintain a target price of 71 yuan, corresponding to 27 times PE in 20 years, and maintain a “strong push” level.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risks; increased competition risks; demand is less than expected.