Year of the pig investment strategy: domestic and international financial market speculation
Source: Securities Times. Top Ten Conjectures in the Domestic Financial Market: Establishing a science and technology board and pilot registration system will release the vitality of capital market reform. Establishing a science and technology board and pilot registration system will be the top priority for capital markets in 2019., Will complement the capital market to serve the shortcomings of scientific and technological innovation, and provide more and more convenient financing opportunities for technologically innovative companies, thereby providing protection for their rapid development; gradually, will be issued, listed, information disclosure, trading, retirementThe city and other basic stock system reforms have further strengthened and improved the stock issuance and listing system centered on information disclosure and increased investor trading opportunities.
It 重庆耍耍网 can be expected that the reform of the capital market in 2019 will revolve around the institutional design of the science and technology innovation board, corporate declaration, and incorporation, etc., the purpose is to improve the bond between the capital market and the new economy, and make the capital market better serve the innovation driveStrategic and real economy, investors will also have the opportunity to share the dividends of the growth of technology companies through the channels of the science and technology board.
Significant progress will be made in the gradual reform of tax and fee reductions. The increase is China’s largest tax revenue.
2019 will be a crucial year for reform. Major progress has been made in reducing tax rates, rebating input credits and expanding the scope of deductions.
Gradually increasing the tax rate and degenerating is a perfect tax policy, and the most important part of achieving neutrality is conducive to further exerting the role of market resource allocation and helping economic development.
The tax-refund policy in 2019 will also continue, and the scope and scale of the tax-refund policy will be continuously expanded in accordance with fiscal affordability, the normalization of the tax-refund policy will be realized, and the comprehensive tax-refund policy will eventually be realized.
After the implementation of the new asset management regulations in 2018, the shadow banking business continued to shrink, and the growth of social financing scale stocks replaced.
8% historical low.
As a hedging measure, it has released a total of nearly 6 trillion yuan in monetary policy operations through multiple rounds of targeted RRR cuts and medium-term borrowing facilities.
From the perspective of the monetary policy compensation mechanism, the first benefit to the monetary easing is the money market. The market interest rates of various maturities have continued to fall, but they can only offset the credit market. There will still be a time lag, so the decline in the loan interest rate is less than the market interest rate.
However, the continued development of the previous monetary easing policy and the further easing of monetary policy this year are expected to lead to a steady increase in the scale of social financing, and financing costs will continue to fall.
Interest rate consolidation is expected to take a substantial step and to extend the interest rate “merging the two tracks into one track” over the past two years, which means that the interest rate on deposits and loans has moved closer to the market rate.
The long-term monetary policy operating framework is shifting from quantitative to price-based restructuring, which means that policy interest rates will play a greater role.
In order to increase the impact and growth rate of policy interest rates on deposit and loan rates, it is imperative to cancel the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans.
However, considering that the risk pricing capabilities of financial institutions need to be further improved, the cancellation of the benchmark interest rate can be considered as easy first and then difficult, and can be cancelled by time limit.
In view of the easiness and the practical necessity of reducing financing costs, the forecast of the benchmark interest rate for loans will be cancelled first.
China-US trade prospects are on track As the world ‘s largest economy and the second-largest economy, the entire process of China-US trade integration has an important impact on the global economy.
In more than ten months, China and the United States have actually resolved many differences, especially in terms of promoting trade balance and protecting intellectual property rights.
In the future, China and the United States are expected to reach a consensus on the nature of return to trade and seek common ground while shelving differences.
At present, major changes have taken place in the world’s trade structure, the fifth round of world industrial transfers has accelerated, and multilateral trade rules will also undergo major adjustments.
2019 is a critical year for the so-called, and it is also a difficult time for the global economy.
Sino-US trade itself is dynamic. The two sides will sort out the current favorable conditions and push trade forward.
Acceleration of the amendment of the Securities Law Since the amendment of the Securities Law was launched in 2013, it has gone through two meetings of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.
In 2019, the implementation of the transformation of the science and technology board and the registration system pilot was restored, and some key issues were restored. In addition to the changes in macroeconomic and financial supervision, the progress of the “Revision of the Securities Law” gradually accelerated. Combining the “second reading” content and market expectations, in some aspectsOr there will be a breakthrough.
In terms of issuance, in order to meet the needs of registered issuance, the corresponding issuance regulations will be adjusted.
Further upgrade the relevant requirements for information disclosure, strengthen the trust responsibility of various market entities, and expand the scope of trust, which has been reflected in the “Second Reading” of the Securities Law. Through the implementation of the registration system, the trust requirements will be further strengthened.
Increased market competition for fraud issuance, financial fraud, and default standards for insider trading may also be promoted.
In addition, to further increase the proportion of direct financing in the capital market and provide smooth financing channels for innovative technology companies, perhaps they will also make a difference in law.
The real estate long-term mechanism plan will be implemented steadily in 2019. Under the background that “stability” is the top priority, the real estate long-term mechanism mechanism will make breakthrough progress and the implementation of the plan will be accelerated.
The most important content of the long-term real estate mechanism is the reform of the housing system. This year, major breakthroughs will be made. The housing market and housing security system will be established. In particular, the development of the housing leasing market will speed up.
At the same time, financial, land, fiscal and taxation, legislation, market supervision and other means that are compatible with the housing system have been jointly advanced rapidly, including reform of the housing provident fund system, land system reform, and real estate tax legislation.
Specifically, the local government will take the overall plan of the central government as a guide, study and formulate a “one city, one policy” landing plan in combination with local actual conditions, and conduct pilot projects in key cities.
The reform of state-owned enterprises and state-owned assets continued to deepen the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference to activate the vitality of micro-entities and quickly realize the transformation from managing enterprises to managing capital.
2019 is a key year for achieving the goal of 2020 state-owned enterprise reform. In the process of combining capital management, conventional capital investment and operating companies will become one of the focuses of this year’s state-owned enterprise reform.
Focusing on the construction of the authorized operating system, the two types of companies are expected to complete the adjustment of their organizational structure, and the reform of the management and control model will be alive, deep and practical, and gradually build a professional platform for market-oriented operations.
The planning outline for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is gradually unveiled. The development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has been formed. The related supporting implementation plan is being prepared and improved. It is expected to be announced in the first half of this year.
It is understood that the outline was prepared jointly by the relevant central departments and the governments of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau.
The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Mrs Carrie Lam, told the media on January 15 that the SAR Government is advancing at 1?Approved and agreed by the central government within 2 months to announce the outline of the development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
5G business enters a new stage Through the release of 5G spectrum, the cooperation of operators, equipment vendors and other parties in the industry chain has entered a new stage, and the 5G business step has been getting closer.
5G temporary licenses will be issued to some regions this year.
As a new generation of information infrastructure, after the acceleration of the pace of commercial use, 5G is re-seeing the flowers in the mist and moving to millions of households and industries.
The maturity of 5G is enough for consumers to experience a faster network. More importantly, 5G can empower other industries, such as virtual reality (VR), ultra-high-definition video, and autonomous driving. Maybe it may be called “5G +”.
Top 10 conjectures in the international financial market
Just in August 2018, US stocks set a historical record: the longest bull market in the history of US stocks.
However, many people did not expect that in the fourth quarter of 2018, especially in December, there was a two-digit increase in the vertical transition.
After the New Year, however, there was another dramatic reversal.
The average growth rate of the three major US stock indexes in January 2019 exceeded 6%, setting the best first-month performance in the history of the US stock market.
The research view of Tianfeng Securities believes that the US stock market’s shrinking recovery is coming to an end, and the risks in the future lie in the loosening of monetary policy and the unexpected decline in performance.
Where does Brexit go?
Closer to the Brexit deadline on March 29 this year, Brexit progress has been bumpy.
As of the end of January, amendments to reject “hard Brexit” and seek a Northern Ireland border alternative have been passed, but the market’s concern about the delay in Brexit has not been passed, and the UK still faces the risk of “hard Brexit” without an agreement.
A research report by CITIC Securities pointed out that the current focus of Europe is mainly on events such as Brexit, and Europe or the United States other than the United States this year, another risk point in overseas markets.
The research report of Huachuang Securities pointed out that the impact of Brexit on the British economy is significantly greater than that of the European Union, and the ups and downs of Brexit progress have a relatively limited impact on European assets.
The Fed’s rate hike is coming to an end?
Market turmoil coupled with uncertain economic outlook, whether the Fed will continue its interest rate hike plan has attracted attention from all walks of life.
At the antique Fed’s new first monetary policy meeting at the end of January, the Fed did not decide to raise interest rates and did not change the speed of its balance sheet.
However, the resolution statement released after the meeting deleted the forward-looking guidance on further step-by-step interest rate hikes, and has sent the strongest signal to suspend interest rate hikes.
How does the “patient” Fed choose its future path?
The answer may be data performance.
Analysts at UBS Wealth Management said that if the US economy maintains its current potential, it can support the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates once a year.
CITIC Construction believes that the Fed’s rate hike cycle has actually come to an end, and there is at most one round of the current rate hike cycle.
Even the Federal Reserve raised the final size of its balance sheet, but the end of the contraction may be at least until 2020.
Will oil prices fall?
Looking back at 2018, it was a year when international oil prices experienced ups and downs. Under the influence of the resumption of sanctions on Iran by the United States, OPEC production reduction agreements, record highs in US shale oil production, and trade frictions, the volatility of crude oil prices increased significantly.
As volatile as oil prices are, the commodity markets.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the prices of 22 types of commodity futures contracts such as energy, metals and agricultural products, peaked in early May last year, and fell by nearly 13% in 2018.
Cinda Securities believes that three major events in 2019 are decisive variables for the global crude oil market: first, the implementation of OPEC production cuts and whether to continue production cuts in the second half of April; second, Iran ‘s crude oil exports and the US ‘s decision to extend exemptions for five monthsThe third is the situation of US crude oil production.
A new era of interest rate rise in Europe?
For the European summer, last December was a historic moment and the unprecedented quantitative easing policy plan officially ended.
Today, the average of economic growth and basic growth rates has reached a satisfactory level, and the prospect of Europe’s complete withdrawal from quantitative easing and even raising interest rates is full of uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs predicts that Europe’s highest may not expand until late this year or early next year.
New Era Securities believes that European Emerging is likely to raise interest rates in 2019.
Continued long-term maintenance of zero interest rates may stimulate a large number of inferior investments, and corporate debt will also increase. Given that the European economy is growing at about 2% and the return on investment is relatively considerable, a modest rate hike will not excessively restrain economic growth, but it will inhibit lowInvestment in efficiency.
At the same time, from the perspective of capital flows, it is also necessary to raise interest rates in the European transition.
If Europe does not raise interest rates for a long time, capital will continue to flow from Europe to the United States, which will also have an impact on European capital markets and the real economy.
What is the risk of exchange rate risks in emerging markets?
In 2018, emerging markets have experienced several ups and downs, once creating a long-term asset selling cycle since the financial crisis, and the exchange rate crisis is making a comeback.
If the US interest rate goes on, it will have a serious impact on emerging markets. Considering that more than two-thirds of emerging market debt is exchanged by the US dollar, a stronger US dollar caused by the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will also put pressure on emerging market currencies.
Franklin Templeton Investment pointed out that although the emerging markets are currently expected to lack a short-term internal crisis, the timing of long-term investment is expected to take shape, especially the long-term investment opportunities in China’s domestic demand-oriented industries.
China Everbright Securities ‘overseas market research points out that China and other emerging economies are also subject to the global economic growth rate. At the same time, rising external pressures have also led to the release of internal risks.The overall structural and marginal improvement will be the highlight of global economic growth in 2019.
Will Bitcoin crash again?
For Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies, 2018 was a bad year, with the price of most cryptocurrencies falling by more than 50%.
The bitcoin boom seems to have disappeared, and it is not easy for its price to reach $ 4,000, and its price was more than $ 12,000 12 months ago.
In the eyes of some investors, Bitcoin and blockchain do have some flaws, but they will gradually improve and continue to survive.
However, Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out that Bitcoin is overlapping the history of the massive influx of capital, but the subsequent collapse of assets.
Overseas unicorn staged a wave of listing?
A large number of Internet unicorn companies that are not very profitable hope to reserve more abundant cash flow through listing, but listing at a lower than estimated or even low issue price has now become the norm for Internet unicorn listing.
It is reported that U.S. super unicorns are expected to be listed in 2019, including Uber and Lyft, data analysis company Palantir, shared accommodation platform Airbnb, corporate communication platform Slack, etc., among which Uber is expected to reach $ 120 billion.
There are also a large number of domestic companies going to the US stock market in 2018.
According to incomplete statistics, nearly 40 Chinese companies were listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets last year.
Entering 2019, the enthusiasm of domestic companies, especially unicorns, for listing in overseas markets such as US stocks will still help maintain and continue.
Will global debt risk erupt?
The latest report released by the International Finance Association shows that as of the third quarter of 2018, the global debt scale has exceeded three times the global economic aggregate, and the ratio of global debt to global GDP is close to the highest level ever.
The global debt scale has increased significantly in the past decade, especially in the non-financial corporate sector and government sector, where debt has grown rapidly.
Among them, government debt is expected to grow faster, while corporate debt in emerging economies is growing faster.
In the face of the ever-expanding public debt of governments, the risk of controlling debt is becoming increasingly serious.
Fidelity International said that in response to the global financial crisis in 2008, countries generally lowered the cost of debt financing, and the scope and pace of normalization of interest rates were relatively limited after the crisis eased.
The huge scale of compliance debt in the global economy makes it difficult for countries to fully recover the interest rate level of the previous cycle within a few years.
Extreme weather hits the capital market?
Since the 21st century, extreme weather caused by global warming has become more frequent.
At the end of January, extreme weather such as low temperatures, snow and storms occurred in many parts of the United States.
A study by the Yale University’s Climate Change Exchange Program indicates that about 72% of Americans believe that global warming is very important to themselves, and this proportion is the highest since the 2008 survey.
Some people worry that the rise in prices of natural gas and food caused by extreme weather will affect inflation and even affect the prospects and monetary policy decisions of countries.
The World Economic Forum has just released its latest issue of the Global Risk Report, and environmental issues have occupied the “World Risk List” for the third consecutive year.
Following unprecedented heat waves, storms and floods across the globe in 2018, “extreme weather events” are global risks with the highest probability.