Provincial Broadcasting Group (002400): Strengthening integrated marketing service capabilities with big data as a starting point
This report reads: The company relies on data and technological advantages to strengthen its one-stop integrated marketing service capability with digital marketing as its core, and continues to strengthen its in-depth cooperation with customers. Investment Highlights: First Coverage, Target Price 3.27 yuan, cautiously increase holdings.The company continues to deploy digital marketing business based on big data and relies on data platforms to empower the traditional marketing industry. It is committed to continuously integrating resources and providing advertisers with a one-stop integrated marketing business.EPS0 is expected for 2019-2021.12/0.14/0.17 yuan, target price 3.27 yuan, the first coverage given a cautious overweight rating. Backed by China Telecom, multiple businesses go hand in hand.As the earliest public service advertising company in China, the company has formed long-term 杭州夜生活网 and in-depth cooperative relationships with many advertisers.At the same time, the company follows the development trend of the industry and develops outbound M & A to develop digital marketing. It has become a domestic first-class integrated marketing service provider across brand planning, public relations, traditional media advertising, digital marketing, and content marketing. Brand management has broad prospects for development, and digital marketing has expanded to integrate mainstream marketing.The increase in income has led to the expected increase in the number of mainstream + value consumers, and the increase in consumer brand awareness has become the most fundamental driving force for companies to communicate brand value through marketing. The future development of brand management is expected.In essence, the advertising 杭州桑拿 industry has transitioned to technology-driven digital marketing, digital advertising has expanded its absolute advantage market share, and big data + artificial intelligence + online and offline scene fusion brings more possibilities for integrated marketing with digital marketing as its core.Sex. With big data as the starting point, we will promote the transformation of Guangdong Guangquan’s marketing business.The company relies on a diversified one-stop integrated marketing business to establish long-term stable cooperative relationships with many high-quality customers, while complying with industry development trends, and continuously strengthening digital marketing capabilities with technology and data as its core, to create more products that meet different industries and different marketing methods.Consumer research tools, as well as launching richer consumer insight products, strengthening the application and monetization of big data technologies in different marketing scenarios. Risk Warning: Uncertainty brought by industry competition, brain drain and asset impairment
Month: April 2020
Can technology stocks lead the gains？It ‘s estimated that it ‘s too expensive to invade and have a fund manager sell it.
Can technology stocks lead the gains?It ‘s estimated that it ‘s too expensive to invade and have a fund manager sell it.
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities! The most profitable natural non-tech stocks in the market this year are.Although technology stocks fell across the board today, too many people believe that this is not a surprise. The continuous strong growth has made some technology stocks overvalued. Fund sources believe that the recent rebound in technology stocks has extended, and the speed is fast. Short-term adjustments are more conducive to the subsequent market development, and the adjustment is not expected to be too large.Technology stocks will still be the main line of A-share investment in 2020. At present, some reasonable estimates of technology stocks should be selected for layout. The three major indexes of technology stocks decreased in a large area in the early morning. The GEM index fell more than 1% at one time. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes performed slightly better.At noon, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices rose by 0.3% and 0.4%, the GEM Index fell 0.46%. From the surface of the disk, in addition to the pharmaceutical sector leading the decline, technology stocks also appeared across the board, computer, communications, chemical pharmaceuticals and other attention fell, until the midday closing, the media fell by 1.16%, chemical and pharmaceuticals fell by 1.13%, computer equipment dropped by 0.70%, communication services dropped by 0.65%. Data source: Although the flush of technology stocks appeared today, they still cannot hide the strong performance this year.As of February 18, in the Shenwan industry, the average increase of individual stocks in the computer and electronic sectors exceeded 20%, and the average increase of individual stocks in the technology industry since the Spring Festival also exceeded 10%.Medical biology and communications also performed well. Fund managers’ two consecutive “sell-fly” technology stocks have exceeded the expectations of too many institutions, and some fund managers have admitted that they have “sell-fly”. ”The market’s risk appetite for technology stocks is too high. A technology stock that was originally in a heavy position continued to grow after it was sold. Later, considering the market sentiment tends to maintain, it bought up after buying it, and sold it after earning a wave.乎意料的是股价现在还在涨，可以说是两次‘卖飞’了。The current highest point is about 25% higher than the point at which it was sold for the first time. The key is that the estimate at the time of the first sale is no longer cheap.”A private equity fund manager Zhang Jun (pseudonym) said that many technology stocks are overestimated, and even areas such as PCBs and chips whose performance has been relatively weak due to the epidemic are not cheap. Another private equity fund manager also said that last week, the company’s unified request to lighten up.However, in the past week or so, these lightened technology stocks have still risen a lot. Fortunately, at the time, most of the technology stock positions were retained. In essence, some private equity funds have maintained their “fixing power”.A private equity fund in Beijing said that some technology stocks are not estimated to be cheap, but considering the recent high market sentiment, the market liquidity is positive, and has not been anxious to sell 北京夜网 before. China Post Fund Manager Guo Xiaowen pointed out that around 2019, 2020 A-share investment may be more difficult.Because of the high degree of prosperity, stocks with good performance trends are expected to grow significantly, while high-quality technology stocks and growth stocks and many high-quality core asset stocks have significantly adjusted.For technology stocks, 2020 is the year of performance verification, and breakthroughs in individual stocks with performance that exceeds expectations may cause major adjustments, which is also a risk to be aware of when investing in technology stocks.Most positions will only participate in leading stocks. Wait for the estimate to fall and explore new opportunities. Zhongzheng Jun understands that the continuous strong growth of technology stocks has caused some investors who have 上海夜网论坛 not got on the train to “don’t miss” the worry.At the previous price? Gradually private equity fund managers point out that when market sentiment is high, the more you must maintain the rationality of investment, and the mentality of not being afraid to miss it.The estimate is seriously overestimated, and it is definitely going to fall. It is considered that the expected growth will not fall too much, which belongs to the “inertia of bull market expectations.”Of course, the extent to which the estimation falls depends on the performance of the company, the level of risk appetite in the market, and the tolerance of investors for the estimation. Heju Investment said that the recent rebound in technology stocks has broken through at a faster pace, and a certain short-term change is also a normal phenomenon, which is more conducive to the development of the next stage of the market, but the adjustment is not expected to be too large. Although the short-term estimates of some sectors are relatively expensive, in the opinion of more fund managers, the judgment that technology stocks are the main line of A-share investment in 2020 has not changed. At present, it is more important to choose some areas with reasonable estimates. Zhang Jun said that in comparison, the estimates of some technology stocks are not expensive, some autonomous and controllable areas and so on. Heju Investment pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on some technology stocks is medium and long-term, and it will continue to deploy online education, online medical care, online office, online entertainment and other fields in the future.The epidemic situation has changed everyone’s consumption habits. Once some consumption habits are established, the possibility of switching back may be small, which will profoundly affect the development rhythm of some industries.In addition, the localization of IT basic software and hardware is also worthy of attention. Guo Xiaowen said that the core logic of technology stocks is the three cycles of innovation cycle, policy cycle and capital cycle. From the perspective of the industrial cycle, the electronics industry has a V-shaped reversal. From the third quarter of 2019, the long-term growth of the sector has accelerated.The industry is at a relatively advanced level, fully embracing the golden age of hard-core assets.Specifically, we are optimistic about the fine-molecule industries of consumer electronics (smartphones, wearable smart devices), semiconductors, radio frequency (sealing and testing), panels, LEDs, PCBs, and new energy vehicles.
Zoomlion (000157)： Confidence in the next cycle to benefit the underlying equity incentive show
Zoomlion (000157): Confidence in the next cycle to benefit the underlying equity incentive show
Core products benefit from the post-cycle of infrastructure and real estate. Fair incentives highlight solid growth confidence. Infrastructure-related policies have continued to increase over the past 10 months. Real estate investment shows that there is room for more post-cycle varieties such as cranes and 上海夜网论坛 concrete machinery.
The competitiveness of the company’s core products has been enhanced, and a new round of equity incentives has shown steady growth confidence, and the performance growth rate continues to lead the industry as a whole.
Maintain profit forecast, EPS is expected to be 0 in 19-21.
54/0.
63/0.
72 yuan, PE is 11.
4/9.
7/8.
5 times.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Infrastructure construction is gradually strengthened, land revenue is outstanding, and cranes and concrete machinery have additional growth space. From January to October 19, domestic infrastructure investment growth has increased.
26%, transportation, environmental protection and other shortcomings continued to increase investment, investment growth rate ahead of the overall infrastructure investment growth rate.
The State Council reduced 北京夜网 the minimum capital ratio for some infrastructure projects on November 13. The strength of infrastructure construction in 2020 will benefit from the increase in financial support and the “steady growth” underpinning effect.
Real estate investment showed expected growth, with an average domestic growth of 10 in 1-10 months.
3%, of which the growth rate of new starts in October picked up, and the growth rate of completion improved.
We expect that the market for crane equipment and concrete equipment will have more room for growth in the next 2-3 years, mainly due to infrastructure shortcomings, new rural construction, stock renewal, environmental protection elimination and renewal, and artificial substitution effects.
The performance evaluation target is relatively stable, focusing on long-term incentives and constraints. The company launched a new round of equity incentive budget on November 15, and plans to recruit 1,200 employees, including 16 supervisors.
We estimate that the performance evaluation base for this incentive is expected to be 25.
28ppm (average net profit attributable to mothers in 17-19 years), corresponding to a target net profit of 20-22 years is 45.
45/47.
97/50.
490,000 yuan, three-year performance growth rate of 8% / 6% / 5% in ten years; three-year net profit totaled 143.
910,000 yuan, if the share payment fee is added, the total is 156 in three years.
4.6 billion.
The assessment targets show the company’s confidence in the steady growth of its performance in the next three years.
The existing compensation structure of the company’s core operation and management team is single, and the implementation of the effective 17-year distribution incentives is conducive to the long-term incentives and constraints of the core team.
In the first three quarters of 19, the performance increased rapidly, and the profitability increased rapidly. From January to September of 19, the company achieved operating income of 31.8 billion yuan / + 51%, which was attributed to its parent net profit of 34.
800 million / + 167%.
The high performance benefited from: 1) the company’s continuous increase in orders and sales of concrete equipment and lifting equipment; 2) pump trucks, tower cranes, engineering cranes, etc. 4.
The market coverage of 0-series core products has increased, and product competitiveness has increased.
Gross profit margin was 29 from January to September.
8% / + 3.
45 pct with a net interest rate of 10.
9% / + 4.
78 pct, the profitability increased due to: 1) the improvement of the core product structure of lifting machinery and concrete machinery; 2) the cost control was good, and the cost rate decreased during the period.
Maintain profit forecast and “Buy” rating. Net profit attributable to mothers is estimated to be 42 in 2019-21.
2/49.
6/56.500 million, EPS is 0.
54/0.
63/0.
72 yuan, PE is 11.
4/9.
7/8.
5 times.
The average PE value of domestic companies in the same industry for 20 years is 8.
9x, overseas leading CAT and Komatsu PE average of 12 years.
4 times.
We predict that the construction machinery industry is expected to develop steadily in 2020. The company’s crane and tower crane business is expected to grow rapidly, and the performance growth rate is expected to continue to lead the industry as a whole.
Give company 2020 PE estimate 11x?
12x, corresponding to the target price of 6.
93?
7.
56 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: The domestic economy is down faster than expected; the growth rate of infrastructure investment has not increased as expected, and real estate investment has continued to narrow; the industry’s competitive environment has deteriorated; the market for new products has not expanded smoothly; the impact of impairment losses
Hetai (002402) 2019 Interim Report Review： The gross profit rate of smart controller business rebounded and the development of radio frequency chips exceeded expectations
Hetai (002402) 2019 Interim Report Review: The gross profit rate of smart controller business rebounded and the development of radio frequency chips exceeded expectations
The event company released its 2019 interim report, and the company achieved operating income in the first half of 201917.
4 billion, net profit attributed to mother1.
700,000 yuan, deducting non-mother net 苏州夜网论坛 profit1.
63 ppm, with a one-year average of 41.
69%, 31.
85%, 29.
97%.
Brief Comment 1. The company has achieved sustained and rapid growth, and the gross profit margin of intelligent controllers in the main business has rebounded.
Thanks to the company’s major customer strategy and the fall in raw material prices, the company’s business still achieved rapid growth in the context of a complex and volatile macro economy.
In the first half of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 17.
400,000 yuan, net profit attributed to the mother1.
70 ppm, with a one-year average of 41.
69%, 31.
85%.
In Q2 2019, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to mother increased by 41.
92% and 37.
18%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.
52pct and 14.
04 points.
The company’s intelligent controller business (excluding the impact of the new consolidated company NPE) has reduced its gross profit margin2.
24pct, in which the gross profit margin of the intelligent controller for power tools reaches 26.
28%, an increase of 7 per year.
37 points.
The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin reached 22.
61%, an increase of 1.
2pct.
The company’s revenue growth rate is higher than the net profit growth rate is the consolidated Italian subsidiary NPE, the company is expected to have a revenue scale of about 200 million, but the basic breakeven.
2. Subsidiary Kunchang Technology has grown rapidly and gradually realized unexpected development.
The subsidiary, Changchang Technology, specializes in microwave millimeter wave radio frequency chips, mainly for the military market, which can support 40GHz and below. The products involve power amplifiers, low-noise amplifiers and other chips.
In the first half of 2019, the revenue of Kunchang Technology reached 1.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 69 in ten years.
65%, net profit reached 0.
55 ppm, an increase of 71 in ten years.
92%.
We believe that the high growth of Kunchang Technology is related to the strong industry demand and the fact that many orders in 2018 were executed in the first half of this year.
Taking into account the company’s technical strength and future localization needs, we believe that the company’s long-term performance will likely exceed expectations.
3. The company’s Vietnam production base will be put into production soon, which is conducive to avoiding international trade risks.
The company is actively deploying new production capacity.In the first half of the year, the company invested in the establishment of a production base in the Shenzhen-Vietnam Cooperation Zone in Anyang County, Haiphong City, Vietnam, and invested 5 million US dollars in its own funds to establish Ho Teh Intelligent Control (Vietnam) Co., Ltd., which is expected to start production in October.
We believe that the layout of Vietnam’s production capacity is conducive for the company to resolve the impact of international trade risks and exchange rate changes, and it is also in line with the development strategy of the company’s layout.
In addition, the company’s intelligent controller production technology transformation and capacity expansion project Phase II has also been put into production.
Earnings forecast and grade: We expect the company’s revenue for 2019-2020 to be 35.
6.9 billion, 46.
2000000000.
Taking into account the uncertainty of foreign exchange loss gains and losses, as well as the company’s possible increase in R & D investment and increased depreciation expenses after conversion, we expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 3 in 2019-2020.
100 million, 4.
400 million, EPS is 0.
36 yuan, 0.
51 yuan, corresponding to PE of 25X, 18X, maintaining the “buy” level.
Risk warning: the demand for intelligent controllers is lower than expected; the prices of upstream raw materials continue to increase; the company’s market share has expanded; Kunchang Technology has failed to meet expectations.
Zhongju Hi-tech (600872) 2019 Interim Report Review： Steady Increase in Incentives for Main Business Profits
Zhongju Hi-tech (600872) 2019 Interim Report Review: Steady Increase in Incentives for Main Business Profits
The performance of 19H1 seasoning was in line with expectations.
19H1 company achieved total operating income23.
9.2 billion, +10 in ten years.
03%, of which the delicious fresh revenue was 22.
62 trillion, +15 for ten years.
26%, the headquarters / real estate / Seiko revenue of 0.
25/0.
61/0.
420,000 yuan, at least -1.
02 / + 0.
21 / + 0.
00 million, the revenue of the headquarters dropped sharply. H1 sold assets resulting in a high base.
Realize net profit attributable to mother 3.
6.6 billion, a high base +7 in the next decade.
99%; net cash inflow from operating activities 6.
74 trillion, +63 for ten years.
59% was mainly due to the increase in the payable items and the decrease in inventory and receivable items, achieving a healthy growth.
Revenue from delicious freshness continued to grow, and profits remained stable.
Delicious fresh 19H1 revenue 22.
62 trillion, +15 for ten years.
26%, of which the soy sauce and sauce in the condiment grew steadily, increasing by +10 respectively.
44% / 12.
01%, oyster sauce, cooking wine continued to increase due to the growth of the industry and active expansion, respectively +60.
93% / 65.
63%, edible oil, bean curd growth rate exceeded 25%; net profit attributable to parent company3.
62 trillion, ten years +20.
05%.
The product gross profit margin reached 39.
61% every year -0.
38pct, mainly due to the high prices of some raw materials such as glutamic acid and packaging materials, and the increase in the proportion of non-soy sauce products, but it has still increased by about 18 years.
41pct; expense ratio 18 in the first half.
79% per year.
41pct, of which sales expenses / administrative expenses increased by 7% / 19%, respectively, due to the increase in sales staff salaries, freight and business expenses, advertising costs did not increase; management personnel expenses, employee social security expenses, etc. also increased, the expense ratio fellRaise net interest rate to 17.
.
64%, ten years +0.
62 points.
Looking at the second quarter alone, delicious fresh realized income of 10.
95 trillion, ten years +15.
26%, net profit attributable to mother 1.
76 trillion, +7 for the next ten years with a high base.
98%, net interest rate 17.
53% a year -1.
31.
National expansion has accelerated, and incentives have increased.
The company plans to achieve the double hundred goals by 2023, and the current progress reflects strong execution.
1) National expansion accelerated: 19H1 Eastern / Southern / Midwestern / Northern regions income +12 for ten years.
13% / 11.
87% / 24.
49% / 20.
78%, the total number of dealers reached 975, a net increase of 111 dealers, of which 44/55 were added in the central and western regions and the north, of which 15 were developed as blank prefecture-level cities, and the prefecture-level city development rate reached 81%.
Advancement of nationalization progress; 2) High growth rate of catering channels: The company reorganized the dealer structure and updated the distribution standards of dealer resources. At the same time, it used the Kitchen Chef Club as a platform to pass the Super Cold Food Awards and top chef training camps.The event, in conjunction with the promotion of the terminal, achieved rapid growth in the catering channel, and finally the sales time of catering products in the first half of the year was +41.
49%.
At the same time, the development of e-commerce and export channels was accelerated, and mainstream direct-operated platforms, new retail platforms were set up and developed, and the number of exporting countries increased to 7; 3) Product upgrades: 19H1 completed light salt, small naughty low-soy sauce andUpgrade of seafood, steamed fish flavor soy sauce, and completed the “2019-2023 Preliminary Product Development Plan” for other multi-category products, increasing product development efforts; 4) Growth of incentives: the company continues to expand the incentives of employeesIn order to increase the weight of the assessment of income indicators, bonuses are tilted towards middle-level backbones, and the ratio of excess rewards is increased.
In addition, the company plans to build a food science and technology industry incubation zone, with health food as a breakthrough, to achieve resource integration.
Profit forecast, estimation and investment recommendations: The company’s condiment business is in good condition, and there is room for growth in the development of a nationalized market, the development of catering channels and category outreach, and the EPS forecast for 2019-2021 is reduced by 0.
90/1.
15/1.
38 yuan, after considering the improvement of the mechanism, the performance is expected to continue to grow well, maintain the target price of 50 yuan, and maintain a “strong push” rating.
Risk Warning: The growth 厦门夜网 of condiments is not as expected, and the effect of improving the mechanism exceeds expectations.
Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) Update Study： Looking at the Value of the Specialty Preparation Sector from the Perspective of Diversity
Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) Update Study: Looking at the Value of the Specialty Preparation Sector from the Perspective of Diversity
[Key points for investment]With the company’s approval of several important generic drugs in the past two years and the consistency evaluation of multiple varieties, the research and development of generic drugs has entered into the cashing period.Great efforts are made to establish a sales team for specialized preparations and develop sales channels. The use of specialized preparations channels is gradually in place. The high-quality varieties in the non-infusion preparations sector will soon contribute to the profits. We believe that specialty preparations are expected to become another growth point for the company’s profits. As of now, a total of 31 (7 in 2017, 18 in 2018, and 6 in 2019) generic drugs have been approved for production (including varieties that have passed consistency evaluation), and 115 varieties are expected to be listed in the next three years.Among the currently approved varieties, escitalopram oxalate, parecoxib sodium for injection, dexmedetomidine hydrochloride injection, and zoledronic acid injection (for osteoporosis) will contribute to this year’s specialty 苏州桑拿网 preparations segment.Performance elasticity, especially escitalyl oxalate oxalate and parecoxib sodium for injection are quite capable of contributing performance.Esselglycerin Pulan tablets oxalate mainly focus on the collection and release and antidepressant product echelon advantages. Parecoxib sodium for injections looks at imported alternatives in the short to medium term, and may be concerned with its combination with opioids in the long term. The company reports that the product categories involve anti-infection, anti-tumor, anti-coagulation, hypoglycemic and many other disease areas. Among them, gefitinib, dapoxetine, vardenafil and other varieties will be quickly promoted to follow-up sales, includingDapoxetine can be used in combination with mainstream anti-ED drugs to take OTC-end channel volume; however, such varieties as sugandine gluconate injection, afatinib, and apixaban have not expired in China, soEven if the company is still unable to go on sale even after it is approved, the company can demonstrate its R & D capabilities in the first echelon while successfully positioning these duplicate alternative pharmaceutical varieties, and it can take the lead in import substitution after the patent is terminated. We believe that the value of the company’s specialty preparation segment is prominent. 1) Platform-oriented research and development has accumulated power and accumulated accumulation; 2) Build product echelons to exert synergistic effects; 3) Raw material-preparation integration to control the upstream of important specialty preparation varieties. [Investment suggestion]Based on the above judgments, we are optimistic about the company’s future development prospects and comprehensively consider the company’s various business conditions. It is expected that the company’s 19/20/21 annual revenue growth rate will be 3% and the revenue will be 64.05/65.97/67.9.5 billion; revenue for therapeutic infusion 19/20/21 growth rate was 29.64% / 22% / 15%, income is 47.46/57.90/66.5.9 billion; antibiotics revenue growth rate for the year 19/20/21 was 11.72% / 2.72% / 0.53% and income was 36.80/37.80/38.00 trillion; 19/20/21 revenue growth rate of other preparations is 53.30% / 33.32% / 23.00%, income is 45.20/60.26/74.1.2 billion. Based on the above estimates, we expect the company’s operating income for 2019/2020/2021 to be 195.80/224.23/248.9.5 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 15.97/19.37/22.2.5 billion, EPS 1.11/1.35/1.55 yuan. Segment estimation is used to estimate the company’s three major businesses: infusion, antibiotics and other preparations.1) Large infusion: Refer to comparable companies, although the average PE ratio of large infusion industry companies in 2020 is 13.18 times, but we believe that as the large infusion industry has entered the stage of deep integration and the shape of the oligarch is relatively stable, the company as an absolute leader in the industry tries to enjoy a certain estimated premium.It is predicted that the company’s large infusion sector will contribute 9 in 2020.US $ 3.6 billion, considering that the company’s estimates have changed due to changes in the previous market environment. In the long run, the leader of the large infusion industry will definitely benefit from the deep integration of the industry and the increase in concentration. There is estimated room for repair, giving 25 times PE in 2020, Corresponding to a market value of 23.4 billion; 2) Antibiotics: With reference to comparable companies, the average PE ratio of antibiotics companies in 2020 is 9.49 times, we believe that due to the company’s significant cost advantage in antibiotics and the increasing value of the entire industrial chain, the company’s forecast net profit in the antibiotics sector by 2020 is 6.300 million, giving 15 times PE, corresponding to a market value of 94.500 million; 3) Other preparations: With reference to comparable companies, the average PE ratio of other chemical companies in 2020 is 29.99 times, predicting that the company’s net profit for other preparations will be 3 in 2020.700 million, taking into account the company’s reorganization, hundreds of generic drugs will be approved for listing, including high-quality varieties of various injection dosage forms, given 30 times PE, corresponding market value of 11.1 billion.Based on the three-part estimates, we believe that the company’s reasonable estimate for 2020 is 439.500 million US dollars, irrespective of rights issue, corresponding to 30 in 2020.52 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. [Risk Tips]Competitive risks in the large infusion industry; product volume is not as expected; risk of R & D is not as expected;
Tianqi Lithium (002466) 2018 Annual Report Comments： Financial Costs Devour Profit Growth as Core Value
Tianqi Lithium (002466) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Financial Costs Devour Profit Growth as Core Value
On March 28, the company released its 2018 annual report, and the combined company realized operating income of 62.
44 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.
79%; net profit attributable to 22 trillion, long-term growth 2.
57%.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company achieved operating income14.
8.6 billion, an increase of 1 from the previous month.
16%; Attributable net profit 5.
1.1 billion, an increase of 34.
47%.
It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to March 2019 will be 1.
800 million, an annual decline of 84.
85% -72.
74%.
Comment: Net investment income in the fourth quarter led to increased profits.
Main business: In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company realized gross profit8.
84 trillion, molecular weight 0 ring.
6.6 billion.
The price of gold in the fourth quarter dropped by 1 from the previous quarter.
80,000 yuan / ton to 7.
90,000 yuan / ton, the company may hedge some losses caused by falling prices by increasing sales.
Others: The business tax and the “three fees” both increased to varying degrees from the previous month, and the business tax and surcharge1.
71 (+0.
83) 100 million yuan; administrative expenses 1.
55 (+0.
47) 100 million yuan; financial expenses 2.
22 (+1.
05) Ten thousand yuan.
But net investment income4.
84 (+4.
59) billion yuan, mainly because it holds about 2% of SQM’s total share capital.
When 1% of Class B shares are transferred to long-term equity investment this year, the gains and losses from changes in fair value that were originally included in other comprehensive income are transferred to investment income.
The 2018 performance was basically in line with expectations.
Main: In 2018, the company produced 72 lithium ore and lithium chemicals.
4 (+7.
75) and 3.
96 (+0.
7) Bulletin.
Gross profit increased by 3.8.4 billion to 42.
2.1 billion.
Although the average market price of lithium carbonate dropped by 3.
10,000 yuan / ton to 11.
99 million yuan / ton, but the company’s lithium products contain some lithium hydroxide, the unit price of sales fell by only 0.
78 million / ton.
At the same time, the incremental increase, the gross profit still increased significantly.
Other: Business tax surcharge: 2.
09 (+1.
53) 100 million yuan, mainly due to the payment of Chilean stamp duty on M & A loan contracts; financial expenses: 4.
71 (+4.
16) 100 million yuan, which is to complete the purchase of SQM 23.
77% of shareholders increased supplementary expenses by 3.5 billion U.S. dollars, and the exchange rate increase of the US dollar and Australian dollar caused Wenfield exchange losses to increase.
But relying on net investment income5.
39 (+5.
12) Ten thousand yuan, so the company’s profits increase every year.
Growth is the main logic of future performance.
Endogenous Expansion: Currently, Phase II of Phase II is about to be completed in the second quarter of 2019, and Phase III will be completed in the fourth quarter of 2020 and start trial production.
The first phase of lithium hydroxide was put into production this year, and the investment of the second phase has been completed43.
51%, two production capacity each.
4 years.
Suining lithium carbonate 2 has begun to invest initially / year.
Outbound M & A: The company took 278.
$ 4.4 billion in cash for 23 of SQM acquisitions.
77%, the shareholding ratio rose to 25.
86%.
At least the world’s largest salt lake lithium extraction company, with excellent resources, has 8.
22 Lithium carbonate production 武汉夜网论坛 capacity will be further expanded in the future.
Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.
According to 2019E / 2020E / 2021E lithium carbonate prices are 7/6.
5/6 (ten thousand yuan / ton) and other assumptions, we predict that the net profit attributable to 2019E / 2020E / 2021E will be 3.
93/7.
04/9.
17 (US $ million) (the Navy budget is 21/28 / (US $ million)) and the EPS is 0.
34/0.
62/0.
8 (yuan / share).
Corresponds to the closing price of 29 on April 30.
63 yuan, PE is 86/48/37 (times), although the short-term company has no estimates, but the long-term value is outstanding, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: financial costs exceed expectations, lithium prices fell more than expected.
Sanan Optoelectronics (600703)： The turning point has arrived
Sanan Optoelectronics (600703): The turning point has arrived
Sanan Optoelectronics released the 2019 performance forecast company expects that the net profit attributable to the audit in 2019 will gradually decrease.
73.6 billion to 15.
566 million, a year-on-year decrease of 45% to 55%, which corresponds to the net profit attributable to mothers in 201912.
73.4 billion to 15.
56.4 billion.
It is expected that the non-profit profit after tax deduction for 2019 will decrease by 13.
48.8 billion to 15.
736 ppm, a 合肥夜网 year-on-year decrease of 60% to 70%, which corresponds to a net profit after deduction of 6 in 2019.
744 to 8.
99.2 billion.
The performance in 2019 and the fourth quarter is in line with expectations. The median net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 is 14.
1.5 billion, the median net profit after deduction is 7.
870,000 yuan, 19Q4 corresponds to net profit attributable to mother 2.
63 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.
97%, down 2 from the previous month.
2%, corresponding to the net profit after deduction of 0.
98 trillion, down 34 a year.
3%, down 52 from the previous month.
9%.
Overall, the performance of 2019 and 19Q4 is in line with expectations.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the decline in the price of LED chip products has continued to expand, and as a result, the cost of the 武汉夜网论坛 company has fallen slightly below the decline in product prices, and the gross profit margin has gradually improved, leading to a decline in operating performance.
In the first three quarters, the sales scale of Sanan Integration was relatively small, which affected the continuous performance to a certain extent.
After entering 19Q4, through the improvement of the industry’s production capacity supply and the recovery of the demand side, the price of LED products has gradually stabilized and is expected to gradually meet the upward price cycle; the gradual release of Sanan’s integrated production capacity is expected to grow rapidly and synchronously, and the scale effect continuesIt will also be expected to gradually improve performance.
We believe that driven by three factors, including the revival of the LED industry, the penetration of Mini LED applications, and the continuous release of Sanan’s integrated production capacity, the company’s mid- and long-term investment value has become apparent.
Investment Ratings and Estimates We forecast the company’s revenue to be 72 in 2019-2021.
23, 91.
57, 109.
09 million yuan, net profit attributable to mother is 14.
15, 23.
11, 32.
100,000 yuan, the corresponding growth rate is -50%, 63%, 39%, EPS is 0.
35, 0.
57, 0.
79 yuan, corresponding PE is 57X, 35X, 25X. Considering the Mini LED industry application trend and San’an Integration gives the company a long-term growth space for domestic substitution, it gives a 42X PE valuation in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable price of 23.
92 yuan, giving the company a “strong recommendation” rating.
Risks suggest that the recovery of the industry’s prosperity is below expectations, the progress of Mini LED application penetration is below expectations, and Sanan ‘s integrated capacity release is below expectations.
Spring Airlines (601021) Investment Value Analysis Report： Cost Advantages Strengthen Performance and Accelerate Cashing
Spring Airlines (601021) Investment Value Analysis Report: Cost Advantages Strengthen Performance and Accelerate Cashing
Accelerating demand for aviation mass penetration penetrates the third and fourth tiers, and the company’s turnover may reach nearly 4 in 2025.
5%, market share continues to increase.
Cost advantage Integrated moat, Q1 company unit cost is 35% lower than the three major airlines.
Industry operation and investment growth forecast, Shanghai, Japan and South Korea demand boom upward, it is expected that the company’s passenger revenue in 2019 may increase by 2%.
The impact of foreign exchange is minimal, and the risk of volatility is basically negligible. Jet fuel prices have fallen by 1% or increased performance by 40 million.
The diameter aviation leader, the unit cost is 35% lower than the three major airlines, put into operation Daxing Airport to improve the route 深圳桑拿网 network.
The company is the leader in aviation with the highest budget. As of the end of 2018, the fleet size was 81, with 173 routes, and 19.52 million passengers at destination.
The Shanghai base will be formed, and 7 mature regional bases including Shijiazhuang and Shenyang will be rebuilt one after another. The Lanzhou base will be newly opened in 2019.
Beijing Daxing Airport may be launched in 2020, which is expected to radically improve the structure of the route.
Assume that one pair of Beijing-Shanghai time is added each day, and it is expected that the gain of seat km will be zero.
About 5%.
Adhering to the business model of two orders, two highs and two lows, the cost per unit kilometer of Q1 may be about 35% lower than that of the three major airlines.
The popularization of aviation is accelerating. The market size will be nearly 100 billion in 2025, and the company’s turnover may increase to nearly 4%.
5%.
The number of domestic flights per capita in 2018 was 0.
44 times, benchmarking overseas naval aviation penetration rate has at least doubled the space.
In 2018, the annual low-cost airline market share was only 11%, significantly exceeding the global 33% level. The acceleration of the popularization of aviation has penetrated the third and fourth lines, and the market share has continued to increase.
We estimate that the size of the aviation market will be reduced to 983 trillion by 2025, and the company may benefit from industry growth dividends.
Assuming that the company’s ASK growth rate will be about 15% in the next 6 years, the company’s market share in 2025 is expected to be nearly 4%.
5%, continuous improvement.
Passenger revenue may increase by 2% in 2019, and ASK may return to more than 15% in 2020. The impact of oil exchange risk is minimal.
In 2017 and 18, domestic passenger revenue increased by 16% and 8%. Supply and demand improved or promoted the company’s passenger revenue increased by 2% in 2019, and revenue continued to rise.
The only introduction of 5 aircraft last year affected the short-term growth rate of operational investment. At the end of the first half of the year, the 5 aircraft appointment plan has been completed. If 10 aircraft are successfully introduced in the second half of the year, the growth rate in 2020 and 21 is required to return to more than 15%.
For every 1% fluctuation in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the impact on the company’s net profit in 2018 was 580,000. The exchange rate had the smallest impact, and the risks were basically negligible.
On May 30, cloth oil was downgraded by 9 from the beginning of the month.
For every 5% reduction in jet fuel price, the company’s profit is expected to increase by about 40 million yuan, and oil prices can increase the company’s performance.
The cost management and control advantages have been strengthened, and high revenue from auxiliary income has continued to contribute to performance.
In 2018, the company’s unit cost was nearly 30% lower than the average level of the three major airlines. The unit sales expenses and management costs were only 30% and 50% of the three major airlines.
60%.
Compared with Southwestern United States, the company’s cost control is more excellent.
The unit cost of Q1 company is 35% lower than the three major airlines. The cost advantage has been expanded from last year (30%), and the cost advantage has established higher competition barriers.
In 2018, the company’s auxiliary gross profit margin was 64%, and its profitability far surpassed its main business, becoming an important performance support.
Overweight baggage and air sales revenue contributed 68% of this.
Decreasing commissions weighed on auxiliary income, and it is expected to stabilize and recover in 2019.
Risk factors: Macroeconomic growth forecast, rapid oil price growth, aircraft introduction less than expected.
Investment suggestion: Accelerate the demand for mass aviation to penetrate the third and fourth tiers, and the company’s turnover may reach nearly 4 in 2025.
5%, continued to improve.
Cost advantage Integrated moat, Q1 company unit cost is 35% lower than the three major airlines.
Passenger traffic in Shanghai accounted for more than half of the company’s overall. Considering the growth rate of industry operation and investment, the demand boom in Shanghai, Japan and South Korea increased. It is expected that the company’s passenger revenue may increase by 2% in 2019.
We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 2.
02/2.
38/2.
76 yuan, corresponding to 22/18/15 times the PE.
Considering that the company’s market share continues to increase, the cost advantage is strengthened, and the revenue continues to rise, the company’s net profit will increase by 23% in 2019.
The growth is highly certain and given a certain estimated premium, we believe that the company reasonably estimates about 25 times and gives a target price of 51 yuan (corresponding to 25 times PE in 2019).
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Jianghai Securities： Demand for manufacturing PMI returns to boom range continues to improve
Jianghai Securities: Demand for manufacturing PMI returns to boom range continues to improve
-Jianghai Securities Asset Management Department ‘s March PMI data review 20190331 Quqing Bond Forum I. March ‘s official PMI data review: Manufacturing PMI returns to the economic range, and demand continues to improve March ‘s official PMI data released by the Statistics Bureau on Sunday morningThe manufacturing PMI is 50.
5%, higher than the previous value and the expected 49.
6%, the non-manufacturing PMI is 54.
8%, higher than the previous value and the expected 54.
4%, the comprehensive PMI is 54%, which is higher than the previous value of 52.
4%.
To be specific: The manufacturing PMI has returned to the economic range, and 厦门夜网 SMEs have improved significantly.
After the Spring Festival, the production of manufacturing enterprises gradually recovered, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 50 in March.
5%, an increase of 1 from last month.
3 averages, return to the extended range after falling below the critical point for 3 consecutive months.
In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises is 51.
1%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.
4 digits, while the PMI for small and medium businesses is 49.
9% and 49.
3%, up 3 from last month.
0 of 4.
0 single, democratic governments have continuously issued policies to increase support for SMEs. At present, the effect is expected to be gradually realized. It will be gradually reduced from April, and the benefits to manufacturing enterprises will be further increased.
Both the production index and the new orders index rose to a six-month high, and supply and demand continued to pick up.
The March production index rose to a six-month high of 52.
7%, up 3 from last month.
The two averages are mainly the resumption of production restructuring of enterprises after the Spring Festival, but this year’s recovery rate is higher than the same period last year.
4 averages.
March new orders index was 51.
6%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.
Zero averages, which have continued to rise since returning to the economic range in February, indicating that demand continues to improve.
The expected index of production and operation activities was 56.
8%, an increase of 0 from last month.
At six levels, production is expected to continue to improve.
In general, after the disappearance of the Spring Festival factors and the recovery of the weather, corporate production has gradually resumed. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of steady growth policies, supply and demand divided by the recovery.
The price index rose, and corporate purchasing intentions strengthened.
Driven by rising prices of means of production in the circulation sector, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials rose to 53 in March.
5% and 51.
4%, higher than last month 1.
6 and 2.
9 digits, 5 months high each year.
Among them, the average value of the price index of the two industries including petroleum processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing is 56.
Higher range above 0%.
The purchasing volume index for March rose by 2.9 perfect to 51.
2%, return to the expansion range, through the additional recovery of supply and demand, enterprises to expand procurement efforts.
The raw material and finished product inventory indexes were 48 in March.
4% and 47%, up 2 from the previous month.
1 and 0.
The replenishment rate of raw materials inventory for six units is significantly faster than that of finished products, reflecting the strong demand in the market, and the expected growth of the economy in the future, increasing the replenishment rate.
The new export order index and import index were 47.
1% and 48.
7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.
9 and 3.
Nine single ones are still below the critical point. With the global economic growth improving, the impetus for import and export is still insufficient.
In terms of non-manufacturing, the non-manufacturing PMI index was 54 in March.
8%, an increase of 0 from last month.
Five averages, the highest since the fourth quarter of last year, higher than the same period last year.
The non-manufacturing new orders index was 52.
5%, an increase of 1 from last month.
8 digits, a new high since the second half of 2014.
By industry: the service industry is stable.
The service industry business activity index for March was 53.
6%, a slight increase of 0 from last month.
1 average.
With the acceleration of manufacturing production activities, the business activity index of the productive services industry retreated for the third consecutive month and recovered to 57.
8%, higher than last month 4.
8 averages.
From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of railway transportation, loading and unloading and warehousing, Internet software, and finance is 57.
In the high economic range above 0%, business has grown significantly and business activities have been active.
From the perspective of market demand, the new order index for the service industry was 51.
5%, up 1 from last month.
0 average, located in the extended range for three consecutive months.
The construction industry is returning to a high economic range.
The construction industry business activity index was 61.
7%, up 2 from last month.
5 averages.
The employment of enterprises has increased this month, with the employment index at 54.
1%, an increase of 0 from last month.
Nine single ones indicate that the construction of production in the construction industry is accelerating through the start of climate change and warming after the festival.
From the perspective of market demand, the new order index is 57.
9%, up 5 from last month.
9 percentage points, a 15-month high, the use of infrastructure construction projects to accelerate the development of the industry is expected to continue to improve. In general, the PMI returned to the economic range in March, although there are certain scale factors, but the recovery rate is slightly higherIn the same period last year, in the case of a marked rebound in the production index, raw material inventories also rebounded significantly, and the rate of replenishment was faster than that of finished products, reflecting strong downstream demand., Hitting a new high since the second half of 2014, of which the new order index for the construction industry hit a new 15-month high, reflecting the gradual development of infrastructure and driving related demand to pick up.
In the future, with the gradual and steady growth of the policy, the probability of economic 杭州桑拿网 recovery will increase, and the potential pressure on the bond market will not be ignored.