Jin Qilin (603586) In-Depth Report: Domestic Automotive Brake Leads Steady to Expand the Future

Jin Qilin (603586) In-Depth Report: Domestic Automotive Brake Leads Steady to Expand the Future
Key points of investment: domestic automobile brake pad leader, business resumed to rapid growth 1) The company was established in August 1999, the main car brake pads and brake discs, used for disc brakes and drum brakes, are used in automotive brake systemsImportant parts.At present, the company has 221 brake friction material formulas, which can produce more than 6,300 automobile brake pad products and more than 3,900 automobile brake disc products, which can be used in mainstream passenger car models and commercial vehicle models worldwide.2) The company’s customers are distributed at home and abroad. The main sales and income come from the domestic and foreign AM markets. In 2018, the sales volume of brake pads / discs in the AM market reached 97.17% / 98.17%.3) In 2018, brake pads accounted for 77% of the main revenue, and exports accounted for more than 85% of the revenue. Brake pads and overseas markets are the main sources of revenue and profit for the company.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company has achieved operating profit1.81 ppm and net profit1.50 ppm, an increase of 87 in ten years.55% and 91.27%, recovering to rapid growth. The global car ownership is huge, and the company has broad growth prospects. Since the company’s sales basically come from the aftermarket, the company’s growth stock has a strong logical attribute.The world’s latest car ownership is expected to be around 1.4 to 1.5 billion, and the latest domestic car ownership is 2.There are 500 million vehicles. Therefore, under the support of huge car ownership, automobile brake pads and brake discs as consumables will have considerable and stable market demand.According to the forecast of automobile production and ownership data, the global automotive brake pad + brake disc market size exceeds 100 billion yuan.The company’s revenue market is widely distributed, with over 85% coming from overseas markets, of which over 50% comes from the European market and about 15% comes from the North American market.The number of European and North American car owners is expected to exceed 400 million, and the Chinese market together will form the basis and support for the company’s continued growth in the future.The company’s advantageous product cost performance advantage is expected to gradually realize the replacement of imported high-end products and “go global”, so as to achieve continuous increase in market share. Product structure improvement, automobile OEM and high-speed rail innovation machine 1) The company’s brake pad products are divided into general / high-end competition / good / good / best series.At present, the products are mainly high-end series. The proportion of good series products is constantly increasing, and the proportion of better / best series is over 70%. The product prices are increasing and the product structure is improving.As the company optimizes its product structure and technology structure, optimizes customer resources, and improves operational efficiency, the product structure will continue to improve in the future, and profitability will continue to increase.2) The automotive OEM market segmented the AM market, with stricter product technology and quality requirements, more difficult market development, and relatively higher profit margins. For a long time, the domestic and foreign automotive brake pad and brake disk OEM markets were mainly monopolized by international / joint venture manufacturers.Advantage.As a leader in the field of brake pads in China, the company has successfully obtained the qualification of supporting suppliers for some OEMs through continuous research and development and innovation. In particular, the company passed Daimler’s PFA audit last year and officially supplied supporting products for Mercedes-Benz models in batches.This is the embodiment of the company’s product quality level, and it also provides important demonstrations and guarantees for the company to continue to attack the city in the OEM market.Although the existing company’s OEM placement ratio is low, the growth momentum is significantly better than the overall. In the future, customers will continue to develop, OEM supporting scale effects will appear, and profitability will improve and even surpass the AM market.3) Actively promote the strategy of concentric diversification. Some companies are actively researching and developing EMU brake pads and plan to enter the rail 无锡桑拿网 transit market such as railways.The company has developed three powder metallurgical brake pads for EMUs and obtained CRCC certification from China Railway Inspection and Certification Center. The follow-up samples detected the continuous advancement of road tests, and the company will boost the localization rate of iron-iron braking systems in the future.The promotion of high-speed railways has benefited from the rapid development of domestic high-speed rail.We believe that the high-speed rail brake pad business will open the ceiling of the company’s existing business and market, and is expected to become a new growth point for the company’s mid- and long-term development. Earnings forecast, for the first time, we give an “overweight” rating. We expect the company to achieve operating income in 2019-2116.44/19.49/23.17 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.45% / 18.59% / 18.85%, net profit attributable to mother 2.12/2.54/3.30,000 yuan, an increase of 139 in half a year.75% / 19.89% / 19.15%, corresponding to an EPS of 1.04/1.25/1.49 yuan / share, corresponding to 16/13/11 times of PE in 2019-21. Considering that the company has a comparative advantage in products and channels as a domestic leader in automotive brake pads, it is given an “overweight” rating for the first time. Risk warning: brake pads and brake discs grow faster than expected; raw material price risk; exchange rate risk

Zijin Mining (601899): Net profit increased by 19-31% after deducting non-return to motherhood and production capacity release period will be entered after 2020

Zijin Mining (601899): Net profit increased by 19-31% after deducting non-return to motherhood and production capacity release period will be entered after 2020
The event company released a performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 41 trillion to 43 trillion in 2019, an increase of 0.06-2.0.6 million yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.15% to 5%.It is expected that the net profit of non-return to mothers will be realized in 201936.5 ‰ -40 ‰, an increase of 5 per year.89 to 9.$ 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19% to 31%. A brief comment on the increase in output of mineral products. The net profit after deducting non-attribution increased by 19% to 31%. Mineral gold and zinc were the main sources of profit for the company.6%, 27.6% and 11.6%).In 2019, the company’s mineral copper output was 37.0 tons, an annual increase of 49%; the output of mineral gold is 40.8 tons, an annual increase of 12%; mineral zinc 37.4In the initial period, the annual growth rate was 35%; the output growth promoted the performance growth. Mineral copper: The company’s output in 2022 will be nearly double that in 2019. The output of mineral copper (including copper concentrate, mineral electrolytic copper and mineral copper deposits) will be 37 tons in 1922, an increase of 49%. The company’s Q1 to Q4 mineral copper output in 2019They are 8.4, 8.7, 9.3, 10.6 ore, mineral copper output continued to rise.The company’s 20-year 22-year mineral copper production plan is 41, 50-56 and 67-74 tons, with an average annual compound oxide of 22% -26%. The 22-year mineral copper output ratio nearly doubled in 19 years. From the perspective of profitability, according to the company’s first three quarters of 2019, in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s ton of copper oxide was 3 per ton.570,000 yuan / ton (excluding tax), the cost per ton of copper is 2 yuan.04 million / ton, gross profit per ton of copper is 1.530,000 yuan / ton.The price of copper in the previous three quarters was 4.780,000 yuan / ton (including tax), Q4 price in 2019 is 4.77 million / ton (including tax), copper price will be 4 from the beginning of 2020.91 million / ton (including tax), the cost of mineral copper is relatively rigid, the conversion of copper prices has increased, and the company’s profitability has further improved.Production increased and prices rebounded. It is expected that the company’s mineral copper profits will increase significantly in 2020. Mineral gold: The compound annual growth rate of output in the next three years is 6.3-9.From the perspective of output, the company’s mineral gold output in 2019 is 40.8 tons, an annual increase of 12%; 2020-2022 mineral gold production plans are 44, 42-47 and 49-54 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% -9.8%.By 2022, the company’s mineral gold output will increase by 32% compared to 2019. From the perspective of profitability, in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s ton of mineral gold oxide was 290 yuan / g, the cost of ton mineral gold was 177 yuan / g, and the gross profit of ton mineral gold was 114 yuan / g.In the first three quarters of 2019, the gold price in the previous period was 306 yuan / gram, and the price in Q4 of 2019 was 341 yuan / gram. It is expected that the profitability of the company’s mineral copper will be further improved in 2019.Along with the company’s acquisition of the Buritica gold mine, Timok copper-gold mine and technically expanded Longnan Zijin, and other 南京龙凤网 high-quality projects have been put into production, the company’s cost of mineral gold has gradually increased and its profitability will further increase. Mineral zinc: The output will increase slightly in the next three years. From the perspective of output, the company’s mineral zinc will be 37 in 2019.4 Growth rate, with an annual growth rate of 35%; From 2020 to 2022, the mineral zinc production plans are 40, 37-41, and 38-42 indicators, with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9% -4.3%, a slight increase in future production. From the perspective of profitability, in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s ton of mineral zinc oxide was 1.10,000 yuan (excluding tax), the cost per ton of zinc is zero.6 trillion tons of mineral zinc gross profit is 0.50,000 yuan.The price of zinc in the previous three quarters was 2.0 million yuan / ton (including tax), Q4 2019 price is 1.80,000 yuan / ton (including tax), the company expects that the profitability of mineral zinc in Q4 company will decline in 2019. Estimates and investment recommendations The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.16 yuan, 0.23 yuan and 0.30 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 26.1x, 18.3 times and 14.4 times, considering the company’s industry level and future growth, the company is given a “Buy” rating with a 6-month target price of 5.75 yuan.

Zhongshun Jierou (002511) Company Review Report: Second-Quarter Performance Exceeds Expected Gross Margin Increase Trend Continues

Zhongshun Jierou (002511) Company Review Report: Second-Quarter Performance Exceeds Expected Gross Margin Increase Trend Continues

Event: The company recently disclosed its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved operating income of 31 in the first half of the year.

7.2 billion, an annual increase of 22.

67%; net profit attributable to mothers2.

75 trillion US dollars, an annual increase of 37.

59%; net profit after deduction is increased by 41.


Key points of investment: The downward dividend of pulp price appears, and the gross profit margin soared in the second quarter.

The price of wood pulp has continued to decline since the third quarter of last year, coupled with the high stock of pulp in the port for half a year and six months, and small purchases by downstream paper mills have put pressure on the volume of imported wood pulp. In July and August, pulp prices remained sluggish.

For the company, the cost of pulp in the second quarter decreased compared with the same period of the previous year, and Q2 gross profit margin was as high as 39.

23%, an increase of 4.

85 averages, net margin reached 9.

28%, so Q2 achieved a net profit of 1 quarter.

5.1 billion yuan, an increase of 49.

66%, exceeding market expectations.

In the end, overall, the pulp price of the outer disk is still low, and the company’s pulp cost in the third quarter will continue, and the trend of high gross profit is expected to continue.

The structural adjustment focused on high-end, and the new product “dolemi” landed.

In the first half of 2019, the company continued to optimize the product structure, increase the proportion of high-end, high-margin products and non-rolled paper categories, continue to deepen the comprehensive distribution of emulsion products, and improve the performance of key products such as facials, emulsions, and natural wood in various channels.Occupation rate, of which the mother-to-child channel and new retail channel officially launched in the first quarter, the products are mainly high-end lotions and cotton soft towels.

The increase in the proportion of high-end products has increased the 佛山桑拿网 company’s gross profit level, and the increase in performance has promoted a major boost.

The personal care product dolemi was officially launched online in mid-June, further enhancing the brand’s influence and competitiveness.

Build bamboo pulp and paper integration to reduce the impact of cost-side transition.

In 2019, the company’s maximum production capacity is expected to reach 83 tons, and the proportion of pulp cost in the company’s production cost is about 40% to 60%. Therefore, the company faces the risk of large changes in pulp prices.

To cope with cost risks, the company intends to invest in the construction of a 30-bamboo pulp-paper integration project to achieve an integrated production model of bamboo-pulp-paper, reduce intermediate exchanges, broaden the company’s profit margins, and achieve healthy 杭州桑拿 and sustainable development.

“Maintain Recommended Level.”

We expect the company’s EPS to be 0 from 2019 to 2021.

43 yuan, 0.

53 yuan and 0.

65 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 30 times, 25 times and 20 times.

Risk reminder: the risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of new product expansion less than expected

Year of the pig investment strategy: domestic and international financial market speculation

Year of the pig investment strategy: domestic and international financial market speculation

Source: Securities Times. Top Ten Conjectures in the Domestic Financial Market: Establishing a science and technology board and pilot registration system will release the vitality of capital market reform. Establishing a science and technology board and pilot registration system will be the top priority for capital markets in 2019., Will complement the capital market to serve the shortcomings of scientific and technological innovation, and provide more and more convenient financing opportunities for technologically innovative companies, thereby providing protection for their rapid development; gradually, will be issued, listed, information disclosure, trading, retirementThe city and other basic stock system reforms have further strengthened and improved the stock issuance and listing system centered on information disclosure and increased investor trading opportunities.

  It 重庆耍耍网 can be expected that the reform of the capital market in 2019 will revolve around the institutional design of the science and technology innovation board, corporate declaration, and incorporation, etc., the purpose is to improve the bond between the capital market and the new economy, and make the capital market better serve the innovation driveStrategic and real economy, investors will also have the opportunity to share the dividends of the growth of technology companies through the channels of the science and technology board.

  Significant progress will be made in the gradual reform of tax and fee reductions. The increase is China’s largest tax revenue.

2019 will be a crucial year for reform. Major progress has been made in reducing tax rates, rebating input credits and expanding the scope of deductions.

  Gradually increasing the tax rate and degenerating is a perfect tax policy, and the most important part of achieving neutrality is conducive to further exerting the role of market resource allocation and helping economic development.

The tax-refund policy in 2019 will also continue, and the scope and scale of the tax-refund policy will be continuously expanded in accordance with fiscal affordability, the normalization of the tax-refund policy will be realized, and the comprehensive tax-refund policy will eventually be realized.

  After the implementation of the new asset management regulations in 2018, the shadow banking business continued to shrink, and the growth of social financing scale stocks replaced.

8% historical low.

  As a hedging measure, it has released a total of nearly 6 trillion yuan in monetary policy operations through multiple rounds of targeted RRR cuts and medium-term borrowing facilities.

From the perspective of the monetary policy compensation mechanism, the first benefit to the monetary easing is the money market. The market interest rates of various maturities have continued to fall, but they can only offset the credit market. There will still be a time lag, so the decline in the loan interest rate is less than the market interest rate.

However, the continued development of the previous monetary easing policy and the further easing of monetary policy this year are expected to lead to a steady increase in the scale of social financing, and financing costs will continue to fall.

  Interest rate consolidation is expected to take a substantial step and to extend the interest rate “merging the two tracks into one track” over the past two years, which means that the interest rate on deposits and loans has moved closer to the market rate.

The long-term monetary policy operating framework is shifting from quantitative to price-based restructuring, which means that policy interest rates will play a greater role.

In order to increase the impact and growth rate of policy interest rates on deposit and loan rates, it is imperative to cancel the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans.

However, considering that the risk pricing capabilities of financial institutions need to be further improved, the cancellation of the benchmark interest rate can be considered as easy first and then difficult, and can be cancelled by time limit.

In view of the easiness and the practical necessity of reducing financing costs, the forecast of the benchmark interest rate for loans will be cancelled first.

  China-US trade prospects are on track As the world ‘s largest economy and the second-largest economy, the entire process of China-US trade integration has an important impact on the global economy.

In more than ten months, China and the United States have actually resolved many differences, especially in terms of promoting trade balance and protecting intellectual property rights.

In the future, China and the United States are expected to reach a consensus on the nature of return to trade and seek common ground while shelving differences.

  At present, major changes have taken place in the world’s trade structure, the fifth round of world industrial transfers has accelerated, and multilateral trade rules will also undergo major adjustments.

2019 is a critical year for the so-called, and it is also a difficult time for the global economy.

Sino-US trade itself is dynamic. The two sides will sort out the current favorable conditions and push trade forward.

  Acceleration of the amendment of the Securities Law Since the amendment of the Securities Law was launched in 2013, it has gone through two meetings of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.

In 2019, the implementation of the transformation of the science and technology board and the registration system pilot was restored, and some key issues were restored. In addition to the changes in macroeconomic and financial supervision, the progress of the “Revision of the Securities Law” gradually accelerated. Combining the “second reading” content and market expectations, in some aspectsOr there will be a breakthrough.

  In terms of issuance, in order to meet the needs of registered issuance, the corresponding issuance regulations will be adjusted.

Further upgrade the relevant requirements for information disclosure, strengthen the trust responsibility of various market entities, and expand the scope of trust, which has been reflected in the “Second Reading” of the Securities Law. Through the implementation of the registration system, the trust requirements will be further strengthened.

Increased market competition for fraud issuance, financial fraud, and default standards for insider trading may also be promoted.

In addition, to further increase the proportion of direct financing in the capital market and provide smooth financing channels for innovative technology companies, perhaps they will also make a difference in law.

  The real estate long-term mechanism plan will be implemented steadily in 2019. Under the background that “stability” is the top priority, the real estate long-term mechanism mechanism will make breakthrough progress and the implementation of the plan will be accelerated.

  The most important content of the long-term real estate mechanism is the reform of the housing system. This year, major breakthroughs will be made. The housing market and housing security system will be established. In particular, the development of the housing leasing market will speed up.

At the same time, financial, land, fiscal and taxation, legislation, market supervision and other means that are compatible with the housing system have been jointly advanced rapidly, including reform of the housing provident fund system, land system reform, and real estate tax legislation.

Specifically, the local government will take the overall plan of the central government as a guide, study and formulate a “one city, one policy” landing plan in combination with local actual conditions, and conduct pilot projects in key cities.

  The reform of state-owned enterprises and state-owned assets continued to deepen the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference to activate the vitality of micro-entities and quickly realize the transformation from managing enterprises to managing capital.

2019 is a key year for achieving the goal of 2020 state-owned enterprise reform. In the process of combining capital management, conventional capital investment and operating companies will become one of the focuses of this year’s state-owned enterprise reform.

Focusing on the construction of the authorized operating system, the two types of companies are expected to complete the adjustment of their organizational structure, and the reform of the management and control model will be alive, deep and practical, and gradually build a professional platform for market-oriented operations.

  The planning outline for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is gradually unveiled. The development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has been formed. The related supporting implementation plan is being prepared and improved. It is expected to be announced in the first half of this year.

It is understood that the outline was prepared jointly by the relevant central departments and the governments of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau.

The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Mrs Carrie Lam, told the media on January 15 that the SAR Government is advancing at 1?Approved and agreed by the central government within 2 months to announce the outline of the development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
  5G business enters a new stage Through the release of 5G spectrum, the cooperation of operators, equipment vendors and other parties in the industry chain has entered a new stage, and the 5G business step has been getting closer.

5G temporary licenses will be issued to some regions this year.

  As a new generation of information infrastructure, after the acceleration of the pace of commercial use, 5G is re-seeing the flowers in the mist and moving to millions of households and industries.

The maturity of 5G is enough for consumers to experience a faster network. More importantly, 5G can empower other industries, such as virtual reality (VR), ultra-high-definition video, and autonomous driving. Maybe it may be called “5G +”.

  Top 10 conjectures in the international financial market

  Just in August 2018, US stocks set a historical record: the longest bull market in the history of US stocks.

However, many people did not expect that in the fourth quarter of 2018, especially in December, there was a two-digit increase in the vertical transition.

After the New Year, however, there was another dramatic reversal.

The average growth rate of the three major US stock indexes in January 2019 exceeded 6%, setting the best first-month performance in the history of the US stock market.

The research view of Tianfeng Securities believes that the US stock market’s shrinking recovery is coming to an end, and the risks in the future lie in the loosening of monetary policy and the unexpected decline in performance.

  Where does Brexit go?

  Closer to the Brexit deadline on March 29 this year, Brexit progress has been bumpy.

As of the end of January, amendments to reject “hard Brexit” and seek a Northern Ireland border alternative have been passed, but the market’s concern about the delay in Brexit has not been passed, and the UK still faces the risk of “hard Brexit” without an agreement.
  A research report by CITIC Securities pointed out that the current focus of Europe is mainly on events such as Brexit, and Europe or the United States other than the United States this year, another risk point in overseas markets.

The research report of Huachuang Securities pointed out that the impact of Brexit on the British economy is significantly greater than that of the European Union, and the ups and downs of Brexit progress have a relatively limited impact on European assets.

  The Fed’s rate hike is coming to an end?

  Market turmoil coupled with uncertain economic outlook, whether the Fed will continue its interest rate hike plan has attracted attention from all walks of life.

At the antique Fed’s new first monetary policy meeting at the end of January, the Fed did not decide to raise interest rates and did not change the speed of its balance sheet.

However, the resolution statement released after the meeting deleted the forward-looking guidance on further step-by-step interest rate hikes, and has sent the strongest signal to suspend interest rate hikes.

  How does the “patient” Fed choose its future path?

The answer may be data performance.

Analysts at UBS Wealth Management said that if the US economy maintains its current potential, it can support the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates once a year.

CITIC Construction believes that the Fed’s rate hike cycle has actually come to an end, and there is at most one round of the current rate hike cycle.

Even the Federal Reserve raised the final size of its balance sheet, but the end of the contraction may be at least until 2020.

  Will oil prices fall?

  Looking back at 2018, it was a year when international oil prices experienced ups and downs. Under the influence of the resumption of sanctions on Iran by the United States, OPEC production reduction agreements, record highs in US shale oil production, and trade frictions, the volatility of crude oil prices increased significantly.

As volatile as oil prices are, the commodity markets.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the prices of 22 types of commodity futures contracts such as energy, metals and agricultural products, peaked in early May last year, and fell by nearly 13% in 2018.

  Cinda Securities believes that three major events in 2019 are decisive variables for the global crude oil market: first, the implementation of OPEC production cuts and whether to continue production cuts in the second half of April; second, Iran ‘s crude oil exports and the US ‘s decision to extend exemptions for five monthsThe third is the situation of US crude oil production.

  A new era of interest rate rise in Europe?

  For the European summer, last December was a historic moment and the unprecedented quantitative easing policy plan officially ended.

Today, the average of economic growth and basic growth rates has reached a satisfactory level, and the prospect of Europe’s complete withdrawal from quantitative easing and even raising interest rates is full of uncertainty.

  Goldman Sachs predicts that Europe’s highest may not expand until late this year or early next year.

New Era Securities believes that European Emerging is likely to raise interest rates in 2019.

Continued long-term maintenance of zero interest rates may stimulate a large number of inferior investments, and corporate debt will also increase. Given that the European economy is growing at about 2% and the return on investment is relatively considerable, a modest rate hike will not excessively restrain economic growth, but it will inhibit lowInvestment in efficiency.

At the same time, from the perspective of capital flows, it is also necessary to raise interest rates in the European transition.

If Europe does not raise interest rates for a long time, capital will continue to flow from Europe to the United States, which will also have an impact on European capital markets and the real economy.

  What is the risk of exchange rate risks in emerging markets?

  In 2018, emerging markets have experienced several ups and downs, once creating a long-term asset selling cycle since the financial crisis, and the exchange rate crisis is making a comeback.
If the US interest rate goes on, it will have a serious impact on emerging markets. Considering that more than two-thirds of emerging market debt is exchanged by the US dollar, a stronger US dollar caused by the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will also put pressure on emerging market currencies.
  Franklin Templeton Investment pointed out that although the emerging markets are currently expected to lack a short-term internal crisis, the timing of long-term investment is expected to take shape, especially the long-term investment opportunities in China’s domestic demand-oriented industries.

  China Everbright Securities ‘overseas market research points out that China and other emerging economies are also subject to the global economic growth rate. At the same time, rising external pressures have also led to the release of internal risks.The overall structural and marginal improvement will be the highlight of global economic growth in 2019.

  Will Bitcoin crash again?

  For Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies, 2018 was a bad year, with the price of most cryptocurrencies falling by more than 50%.

The bitcoin boom seems to have disappeared, and it is not easy for its price to reach $ 4,000, and its price was more than $ 12,000 12 months ago.

  In the eyes of some investors, Bitcoin and blockchain do have some flaws, but they will gradually improve and continue to survive.

However, Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out that Bitcoin is overlapping the history of the massive influx of capital, but the subsequent collapse of assets.

  Overseas unicorn staged a wave of listing?

  A large number of Internet unicorn companies that are not very profitable hope to reserve more abundant cash flow through listing, but listing at a lower than estimated or even low issue price has now become the norm for Internet unicorn listing.

It is reported that U.S. super unicorns are expected to be listed in 2019, including Uber and Lyft, data analysis company Palantir, shared accommodation platform Airbnb, corporate communication platform Slack, etc., among which Uber is expected to reach $ 120 billion.

  There are also a large number of domestic companies going to the US stock market in 2018.

According to incomplete statistics, nearly 40 Chinese companies were listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets last year.

Entering 2019, the enthusiasm of domestic companies, especially unicorns, for listing in overseas markets such as US stocks will still help maintain and continue.

  Will global debt risk erupt?

  The latest report released by the International Finance Association shows that as of the third quarter of 2018, the global debt scale has exceeded three times the global economic aggregate, and the ratio of global debt to global GDP is close to the highest level ever.

The global debt scale has increased significantly in the past decade, especially in the non-financial corporate sector and government sector, where debt has grown rapidly.

Among them, government debt is expected to grow faster, while corporate debt in emerging economies is growing faster.

  In the face of the ever-expanding public debt of governments, the risk of controlling debt is becoming increasingly serious.

Fidelity International said that in response to the global financial crisis in 2008, countries generally lowered the cost of debt financing, and the scope and pace of normalization of interest rates were relatively limited after the crisis eased.

The huge scale of compliance debt in the global economy makes it difficult for countries to fully recover the interest rate level of the previous cycle within a few years.

  Extreme weather hits the capital market?

  Since the 21st century, extreme weather caused by global warming has become more frequent.

At the end of January, extreme weather such as low temperatures, snow and storms occurred in many parts of the United States.

A study by the Yale University’s Climate Change Exchange Program indicates that about 72% of Americans believe that global warming is very important to themselves, and this proportion is the highest since the 2008 survey.

  Some people worry that the rise in prices of natural gas and food caused by extreme weather will affect inflation and even affect the prospects and monetary policy decisions of countries.

The World Economic Forum has just released its latest issue of the Global Risk Report, and environmental issues have occupied the “World Risk List” for the third consecutive year.

Following unprecedented heat waves, storms and floods across the globe in 2018, “extreme weather events” are global risks with the highest probability.

Gongjin shares (603118): its appearance is not good but it benefits from industry growth

Gongjin 无锡桑拿网 shares (603118): its appearance is not good but it benefits from industry growth

Matters: Recently, the 5G sector has ushered in a general rally, and many investors are very concerned about Gongjin shares.

We believe that although the company’s weapons sector is not very high in technical barriers, it will indeed benefit from the growth of the industry. In addition, the price of raw materials such as upstream chips, capacitors, and resistors will be reduced. The gross profit margin will increase significantly, and it is expected to usher in an inflection point.The leading internal broadband communication terminal manufacturer will fully share the “Broadband China” strategy and the bonus of Gigabit optical network upgrade in the future. It is recommended to focus on it.

Comment: The all-round king of broadband communication terminals, a leading domestic broadband communication terminal industry ODM manufacturer company has started the development, production and sales of broadband communication terminals since 2005. The company’s current products include optical receiving terminal equipment, DSL receiving terminal equipment, wireless and mobileThere are four types of receiving terminal equipment, PLC and EOC receiving terminal equipment. Among them, optical receiving terminals include two types: EPON and GPON, DSL receiving terminals include three types: ADSL, VDSL, and VDSL2. Wireless mobile receiving terminal devices include WIFI, AP, 3G, and LTE.Class terminal.

The company has established many years of partnership with operators and system equipment providers with global market influence, such as BT, ZTE, Shanghai Bell, Fiberhome, D-Link, Sagem, Great Wall Broadband, etc.Become a leading ODM manufacturer in the domestic broadband communication terminal industry.

Large communication equipment providers require ODM suppliers to provide high-level technical research and development capabilities and scale expansion and rapid delivery capabilities. Therefore, communication equipment providers generally do not change upstream suppliers, benefiting from years of cooperation with large communication equipment suppliers., The company already has strong technical research and development capabilities and scale advantages, in the future is expected to be able to use brand and channel advantages to obtain more orders.

At present, the company’s products cover all types except the satellite broadband receiving terminal, which has become the king of the broadband communication terminal industry.

The cost of raw materials is estimated to return to normal levels, and the turning point in performance may come in 2017. As a result of exchange losses (more than 50 million yuan in exchange losses due to the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB), the cost of raw materials has risen (materials such as storage and capacitors have increased by about 1 ‰), and customers have reduced their prices.Increasing labor costs (a gradual increase of approximately 38 million yuan), the company’s expansion in areas such as mobile communications, and other factors affected the company’s net profit growth to decline, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

10,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.


In 2018, the company actively adjusted its strategic structure, developed direct operator business in the main communications terminal business field, and sold products directly to operators, successfully winning the bid of China Mobile Hangzhou Research Center and China Mobile Internet of Things; at the same time strengthening new product developmentCapabilities, develop high-end products, expand high-end customers, increase product gross margins, vigorously lay out innovation areas, and have achieved initial results in the field of outreach M & A.

According to preliminary calculations by the financial department, it is estimated that the proportion of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2018 will increase by approximately 89.63 million yuan, at least approximately 88, compared with the same period of last year (101.37 million yuan).


In terms of cost, the company’s main raw materials include chips, PCBs, power supplies, optical modules, and electronic components, which are basically general electronic components.

Raw materials account for more than 86% of production costs.In 2018, the electronics industry component field generally ushered in price increases. Among the passive components, MLCC rose the largest, and aluminum electrolytic capacitors and chip resistors also showed price increases. The prices of copper-clad boards and PCBsIt also performed well during this period. From the end of 2018 to the present, the price of such electronic components has declined, which has helped improve the company’s gross profit level.

The domestic fixed-line broadband construction continued to expand and the industry was highly prosperous. On August 10, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Three-year Action Plan to Expand and Upgrade Information Consumption (2018-2020).

By 2020, the scale of information consumption will reach 6 trillion, with an average annual growth rate of more than 11%, and the leading role of information technology in the consumption field will be significantly enhanced, driving the related fields to reach the goal of 15 trillion.

With the advancement of “Broadband China” and “Three Networks Convergence” strategies, the demand for emerging services such as cloud computing, big data, and the Internet of Things has driven the demand for high-speed broadband from users.

The “Three-year Action Plan” requires: to further expand the “Broadband China” strategy, organize the implementation of a new generation of information infrastructure construction projects, promote the deep coverage of optical fiber broadband and fourth-generation mobile communications (4G) networks, and accelerate the fifth-generation mobile communications (5G)) Standard research, technical trials, and promotion of 5G-scale networking construction and application demonstration projects.

Deepen the pilot of universal telecommunications services and improve information access capabilities in rural areas.

Increase network fee reductions and fully release network speed increase and fee reduction bonuses.

Pilot demonstrations in industrial, agricultural, transportation, energy, municipal, environmental protection and other fields.

By 2020, achieve optical network coverage in urban areas and provide 1000Mbps access service capabilities; 98% of administrative villages will achieve fiber access and 4G network coverage, and provide 100Mbps access service capabilities in conditional regions; ensure the launch of 5G commercial services.

Acquired Shandong Wenyuan and actively deployed 5G companies to acquire 100% equity of Shandong Wenyuan Communications for a total of 70 million yuan in cash.

Through this acquisition, the company’s development in the field of 4 / 5G mobile products and network systems will be accelerated.

Shandong Wenyuan is committed to the research and development and production of 4G and communication systems. It has specialized skills to provide end-to-end customized solutions for private network customers, and has mastered a full set of core technologies for 4G base stations. It is a leader in the micro-broadband private network market.4G.
Shandong Wenyuan’s LTE wireless broadband mobile communication series products have carrier grade 4G product expansion, high performance, high stability factors, and can be customized for customers to develop solutions that meet proprietary requirements.

Its TDD / FDD-LTE wireless broadband mobile communication products are widely used in emergency communications, video surveillance, voice and video calling, voice and video scheduling, wireless multimedia scheduling and other fields. The private network users served include public security, military, power, and wisdomAgriculture, transportation, forestry and other fields.

Optimistic about the company’s brand and channel resources, covering for the first time, giving a “buy” rating and accompanying the rapid growth of the global number of fiber access users and the steady advancement of the “broadband China” strategy, the company’s optical access equipment market has strong demand; huge XDSL usersThe base number will bring stable demand for XDSL terminal equipment to the company; in smart cities, 4G will explode the market demand for wireless and mobile receiving terminals. In the future, the company’s wireless and mobile receiving terminals will bring thicker performance to the company.

Optimistic about the company’s brand and channel advantages in the field of broadband communication terminals and its layout in the 5G field, it is estimated that the company’s operating income for 2018-2020 will be 86/100/115 ppm and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.



97 ppm, the current expected PE is 35/23/17 times, the first coverage, giving the company a “Buy” rating.

Risks indicate that the order landing time is longer than expected; raw material prices fluctuate.

Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262) Q1 2019 report comments: Q1 results are in line with expectations. Net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 15% -35% in the first half of the year.

Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262) Q1 2019 report comments: Q1 results are in line with expectations. Net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 15% -35% in the first half of the year.

Event: The company announced the first quarter report of 2019 and achieved operating income of 10 in 2019Q1.

4.9 billion, an annual increase of 13.

31%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

2.6 billion, an annual increase of 23.

64%; net profit deduction for non-attributed mothers1.

2.6 billion, an annual increase of 23.

93%, performance in line with expectations.

The company expects the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in the first half of 2019 to be between 15% and 35%.

Opinion: The gross profit margin increased significantly in the first quarter, and the expense growth rate was faster than the revenue growth rate during the period.

The company’s profit growth in the first quarter of 2019 was faster than revenue growth, mainly due to the company’s increased gross profit margin.

38 averages.

In terms of period expenses, the company’s sales expenses increased in the first quarter.

87%; management expenses increased significantly in the short term37.

05%, mainly due to the provision of equity incentive expenses; financial expenses increase rapidly every year.

02%, mainly due to the increase in interest rate expenses; R & D expenses increase by 16 each year.


In terms of cash flow, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter increased by 68%.

07% to 1.

US $ 4.6 billion, mainly due to an increase in sales receipts.

Consistency evaluation continues to advance, and it is expected that new products will be expected to contribute to the market.

In 2018, the company’s R & D expenses increased rapidly in the past ten years54.

45%, accounting for 6% of the income of the pharmaceutical industry.


The company stated that most of the R & D expenses in 2018 were invested in the consistency evaluation of generic drugs. At present, the company’s four key varieties (risperidone ordinary tablets, risperidone dispersible tablets, clozapine tablets, dexmedetomidine injectionLiquid) has been 合肥夜网 declared and approved.

Among them, risperidone ordinary tablets have passed the consistency evaluation in February 2019, and the other three varieties may pass around mid-2019.

In 2019, the company also plans to report the consistency evaluation of 9 products, and at the same time, there are four products on the market, including sufentanil, dezocine, oxycodone injection and penehyclidine.

Actively respond to the new market indicators after the 4 + 7 period. It is expected that the impact on dexmedetomidine sales will be manageable.

In 2018, the company’s dexmedetomidine accounted for about 10% of the sales of nominal sample hospitals, breaking through its contribution to the company’s performance.

However, due to the progress of the consistency evaluation of this variety lagging behind some subdivisions, it has become at least the selected variety for centralized procurement in 4 + 7 cities.

In the 4 + 7 city collective mining released this time, the selected company of dexmedetomidine hydrochloride injection was Yangzijiang Pharmaceutical, with the price of the selected selection reduced by 3%, and the price reduction was small.

In order to cope with the new market index of the 4 + 7 cities, the company will compete for the remaining market share outside the 4 + 7 cities. It has the advantage of more than one indication and will help to ensureMetotomidine can stay inside the hospital; in non-4 + 7 regions, the company will adopt a reorganized sales strategy to continue to develop the hospital market in non-4 + 7 cities.

The company does not expect that Demitomide’s failure to select 4 + 7 episodes will not have much impact on 2019 results.

Give a cautious recommendation rating.

In the context of generic drug price reductions, the company will gradually increase the growth rhythm of the marketing team to maintain a relatively stable cost of sales and profitability, while the reorganization team will focus on the promotion of newly listed drugs. The company’s performance this year is expected to remain relativelyFast growth momentum.

The company’s EPS for 2019 and 2020 is expected to be 0.

63 yuan and 0.

74 yuan, corresponding to PE and 20 times and 17 times, respectively, given a cautious recommendation level.

risk warning.Drug prices fell more than expected, drug sales, and research and development progress fell short of expectations.

Great Wall Motor (601633): New energy pragmatic pioneer technology accumulation has never stopped

Great Wall Motor (601633): New energy pragmatic pioneer technology accumulation has never stopped
Be pragmatic, and target the post subsidy era directly.On the surface, the company’s new energy strategy and planning are 杭州夜网论坛 slightly passive and slow, but in fact, the company’s layout in this area has always been based on economic work. It has no intention of making up for supplementary profits, and directly aims to achieve profitability without relying on compensation.Precise. In the post-subsidy era or after the cancellation of supplements, the company’s layout and strength will be discovered in advance and recognized by the market. Euler’s power consumption indicators are leading, and A00-class cars are still on the market.Compared with the technical indicators of the A00 class aircraft of the same level, the Euler R1 index is leading, and the power consumption most concerned by the market is the lowest in the same class, and the power consumption per 100 kilometers is less than 10 degrees. This technical indicator also strongly indicates that the company isThe research and development and accumulation of energy vehicle technology and lightweighting have never stopped.In addition, we believe that the market is still biased towards A00 models and demand, which is mainly affected by the subsidy policy of 2018 and the fraudulent behavior of some car companies in the early stage, which has caused a large number of inferior products to flood the market and subsequently spread to Great Wall Euler, etc.With the continuous launch of high-quality models, the real demand for A00-class models will gradually be released. Great Wall BMW is worth looking forward to, and the hydrogen fuel layout is one step ahead.The company strategically cooperated with BMW to produce pure electric MINI models in the initial stage. In addition, we believe that in other areas such as new energy technology, battery technology, and intelligent networking and autonomous driving related technologies can achieve win-win cooperation.At present, a hydrogen fuel cell team of more than 600 people has participated in various technology development and model planning. The layout of domestic OEMs has been one step ahead. In the future, the hydrogen fuel industry chain will gradually mature, and the company’s forward-looking layout advantages will gradually be realized. Investment suggestion: The company’s new energy strategy directly targets the post-replenishment era in order to achieve profitability without relying on supplementation. Cooperation with BMW can bring double promotion of brand and technology. At the same time, the forward-looking layout of hydrogen fuel cells will rapidly develop in the future.The process will fully benefit.We are optimistic about the company’s development for a long time, and gradually recommend strategically in 2019.It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2018/19 will be 53.54 ppm / 60.31 trillion, currently expected to correspond to 14 times / 12 times PE in 18/19, giving a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Passenger car sales fall short of expectations

Haitong Securities-2019 Document No. 1 hits eight major divisions and hopes to benefit

Haitong Securities: No. 1 document in 2019 hits eight major divisions and hopes to benefit

Haitong Securities Summary At present, the local two congresses have fully summarized. What kind of signals have been released by the provincial government work reports?

  Adjusted the growth rate to return to the mainstream target range and cut back to the mainstream.

Judging from the 19-year GDP target growth rate of 30 provinces, Liaoning has not mentioned the desalination, 13 provinces are the target intervals, and 22 provinces have been lowered. Only Hubei and Hainan have increased slightly.

This is quite similar to the 16 years, and contrasts sharply with the “mainly flat, slowing down overall” in the past two years.

  Reasons for provinces to reduce GDP growth.

First, the downward pressure on the economy has reappeared. In 18 years, the national GDP growth rate hit a new low for many years, and half of the provinces gradually realized the early GDP targets.

The second is the continuous squeeze out of data. For 13 years, the central government has promoted local governments to improve the government’s assessment system and shake off the burden of growth.

  The fiscal and resident income targets have also been lowered.

The former is the result of the combined 夜来香体验网 economic downturn and tax cuts, while the other reflects the reduction in employment pressure of local governments under the background that the goal of doubling income has been completed in advance.

  Investment impulse has become a thing of the past, dilute investment goals, and the downward adjustment is still the mainstream.

Investment is an important driving force for local governments to drive the economy. Therefore, lowering the GDP target will inevitably also lower the investment target.

From the perspective of the 19-year growth of investment targets in various provinces, 12 have been downgraded. After being downgraded for many years in the central and western provinces, this year has been reduced to some extent. In the remaining provinces, 13 were downgraded. Only Tianjin increased slightly, continuing the downward adjustment.the trend of.

  Land degradation has 上海夜网论坛 not been loosened, and the goal of shed reform has generally fallen.

19 provinces announced their 19-year shed reform targets, and the planned start-up volume has been reduced by 20% compared to the previous year. Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Sichuan and other large-scale shed reform provinces have significantly reduced their planned start-up volumes, with only 6 provinces slightly increasing.

The Ministry of Housing and Construction stated in October last year that the proportion of resettlement with monetization should be further reduced in the future.

The number of shed reforms and the monetization ratio are both reduced, and real estate sales are expected to be under pressure.

  Infrastructure underpins the economy, both hard and soft.

Many provinces have proposed to “implement key projects to supplement shortcomings”, and infrastructure has become an important driver of the bottom-up economy.

Among them, the central and western regions are dominated by railways, highways, airports, reservoirs, and waterways; the eastern part is intersected by rails, and underground corridors are the major ones; the construction of information infrastructure has received extensive attention.

  Policies protect private enterprises and improve endogenous motivation.

At the end of last year, the private enterprise forum and the central economic work conference all had to participate in “supporting the development and growth of private enterprises”. Provinces have incorporated their positions into the six central areas. There are three main types of policy measures.

The first is to introduce provincial regulations, the second is to raise financing targets, and the third is to break the barriers to entry.

  In summary, in 19 years, local governments downplayed and lowered their investment growth targets, while also adjusting the focus of stable investment, no longer stimulating real estate, supporting infrastructure in a multi-pronged manner, and encouraging the development of private enterprises.

  The acceleration of economic kinetic energy conversion has accelerated from stable employment to talent acquisition.

Local governments responded to the call of the central government, and in their announcements of the two sessions, they proposed a “re-employment priority policy”. The total number of newly-added urban employment targets announced by 28 provinces reached 14.91 million, and the target for surveying the unemployment rate was generally 4.

5%, 5.

5% or less.

When formulating employment policies, the provinces generally adopted the advantages of local industries and launched talent attraction programs.

Among them, the eastern provinces pay more attention to attracting “strategic technology talents” and “leading scientific research talents”, while the central and western provinces pay more attention to “skilled talents” and “craftsman talents”.

  Speed up technological innovation and transformation.

In the context of the urgent need for economic transformation and upgrading, local governments’ concerns over technological transformation and upgrading continue to rise.

In comparison, the northeast and central and western regions are more focused on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and are more prominently expanded; the developed eastern regions are more focused on creating industrial growth represented by new materials, new energy, intelligent manufacturing, and biomedicine, and more prominently in technology applications;It is also the consensus of local governments to speed up 5G commerce and strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as the Industrial Internet.

  The system reform has released dividends.

“Deepening the reform” is still a key task of local governments in 19 years, and its potential remains unabated.

The reform content of each province mainly covers the following three aspects.

The first is the reform of the economic system. Among them, the reform of state-owned enterprises focuses on advancing mixed reforms to realize the transformation from managing enterprises to managing capital; fiscal and tax reforms focus on reducing taxes and fees, optimizing fiscal expenditures, and revitalizing financial stock funds; financial reforms focus on alleviating SMEsFinancing is difficult to finance expensive issues and develop a multi-level capital market.

Second, the reform of land, resources and other factors has accelerated. The reform of the rural land system is an important change in the revitalization of the countryside. The reform of the resources is an important means of revitalizing the economy and promoting transformation in the central and western regions.

Third, the social system reform has been rolled out at various points, including education, medical care, endowment insurance, housing provident funds and other related systems, which are important interventions to guarantee and improve people’s livelihood.  In summary, the local government’s recognition of talents, technological innovation, and system reform is not only the implementation of the central spirit, but also an inevitable requirement for economic transformation and upgrading.

  At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that 19 years is the key year for building a well-off society in an all-round way and do a good job of economic work.

Economic and social goals for the new year will be announced at the National Two Sessions in early March.

At present, the local two congresses have all announced, what kind of signals have been released by the provincial government work reports?

We will make a detailed analysis in this report.


Slow down the growth rate of mainstream 1.

1Economic growth target: Recurrence interval, generally lowered. On February 17, 30 provinces across the country have connected the two associations in series. The two associations in Shandong are still in progress.

Summarizing the economic growth targets announced by the provinces, there are two major characteristics: First, the target range is reproduced.

Of the 30 provinces, 29 have announced specific GDP growth targets.

Thirteen provinces have set growth targets as intervals. The background is that at the end of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 18 years, “maintain economic operation in a reasonable interval” was re-mentioned.

This is quite similar to the 16 years. At the end of 15, the central government downplayed the growth target and set a “reasonable interval”. At the beginning of 16 the local two associations first appeared in the GDP target interval, and the number exceeded 9.

  The second is to cut back to the mainstream.

Taking into account the comparability of economic targets over the years, we do a simple treatment and replace the target interval with the median of the target interval.

We found that with the 18-year rating, 22 provinces in 19 lowered their GDP growth targets, 5 provinces remained the same, and only Hubei and Hainan increased slightly.

Among the provinces that were downgraded, Chongqing, Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang dropped the average by more than a single digit.

If the lower limit of the target interval is used to replace the interval, none of the 29 provinces will increase.

A similar manifestation appeared in 14-16 years, when at the same time, more than half of the provinces also lowered their growth targets, and rarely raised them.


2 Behind the slowdown in growth: Active decompression and the goal of reducing water levels in all provinces are mainly due to the following two reasons: First, the downward pressure on the economy is reappearing.

Regardless of the 16 years when the “target interval” first appeared, or the 14-16 years when more than half of the provinces lowered their growth targets, the background was the downward growth of the previous year.

The same is true this year. The growth rate of national GDP in 18 years has dropped to 6.

6%, and a new low since 91, only slightly higher than the target set earlier.

Local budget, more than 16 provinces can achieve the GDP growth target.

The downward pressure on the economy has reappeared, and local governments have lowered their growth targets to alleviate the pressure.

  Obviously, the six provinces of Chongqing, Jilin, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Hainan and Heilongjiang all had 18-year GDP growth rates below the target growth rate by more than one, which led to a significant reduction in Chongqing and Heilongjiang’s 19-year GDP targets.

  The second is that data is constantly squeezed out.

With the changes in the stages of economic development in developing countries, the assessment of GDP growth targets has gradually faded, and economic growth has become more qualitative. For 13 years, local governments have taken the initiative to expand the moisture in past economic data and shake off the burden of growth.

For example, provinces such as Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Tianjin have voluntarily reduced economic data.

And the difference between the nominal average GDP growth rate of each province and the national GDP growth rate was 2 from 08-12.

About 4%, continued to decline to 0 in 18 years.


The continuous expansion of local economic data also makes it necessary to reduce its growth target.


3 Reduced income targets: fiscal constraints, consumption pressure and economic growth targets have been reduced simultaneously with income growth targets, including fiscal revenue and household income.

  Fiscal revenue targets are generally lowered.

Both the economy and prices in 16 and 17 years have picked up, making local governments turn optimistic. A large number of provinces have also raised their fiscal revenue targets while lowering their economic targets.

However, from the perspective of the two local conferences in 19 years, 7 of the 30 provinces did not raise the target of fiscal revenue growth, and 19 provinces have lowered their fiscal revenue targets, and none of them have been raised.

The budget and the downward economic pressure have reappeared, causing the local government to once again turn to corrections; revised, at the end of the 18th Central Economic Work Conference proposed “to implement larger scale tax and fee reductions”, local fiscal revenue is bound to face downward pressure.

  Residents’ income targets are slowly decreasing.As the income of rural and urban residents successively completed the “double” goal of the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 17 and 18, the restrictions on local government residents’ income targets were eased. They were mainly unchanged from 17 and 18, and some of them were reduced toDowngrading.

This hugely and truly reflects the improvement of local governments’ pressure on the economy and employment.

And the income of residents continued to increase, and the overdraft consumption of debt to buy a house in the early period has also made local governments cautious about consumption prospects. Of the 18 provinces that announced growth targets for retail sales of social consumer goods, 7 were flat and 9 were downgraded.

Investment impulse is a thing of the past 2.

1 Dilute the investment targets. The downward adjustment is still the mainstream investment target of many provinces, and the remaining provinces are mainly lowered.

In the past, local governments used fixed asset investment as an important driver of GDP, and local investment impulse was very strong.

And lowering the GDP growth target means that the investment growth target must also be lowered.

We can see that the 19-year growth target of fixed asset investment in each province has simultaneously exhibited two major characteristics: First, collectively dilute the investment target.

Although the goal of diluting investment has been normalized for 15 years, there are still 12 provinces with unpublished investment targets in 19 years.

Among them, Shanghai has not mentioned investment targets for 8 consecutive years, and Beijing, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Heilongjiang have not mentioned for 5 consecutive years.

Obviously, the provinces that have newly downgraded investment targets this year are generally located in the central and western regions, reflecting the unsustainable high investment growth in the central and western regions.

  Second, the growth target was generally lowered.

Of the 18 provinces with announced investment growth targets, 13 were downgraded and 4 were flat. Only Tianjin increased slightly, continuing the downward trend of investment targets in all provinces in the past 15 years.

Although Tianjin has raised its investment target, its economic growth target is still being reduced.

  The provinces have been completely diluted and their investment targets have been lowered. The focus of investment has also been adjusted, as shown in the following three aspects: 2.

2 Real estate standardization has not been loosened. The goal of shed reform has been universal.

At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that “to establish a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real market” and “persist to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation.”

Local governments have responded to the call and stated in their announcements that they “stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations of responsibility”.

  Reduce the shed reform target and reduce the proportion of monetization.

At present, 19 provinces have announced targets for 19 years of shed reform, with plans to start a total of 2.6 million units, a 20% decrease from 18 years.

Among them, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Sichuan, and other major provinces plan to reduce the number of construction starts significantly, Henan dropped by as much as 70%, while only 6 provinces slightly increased.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said at a conference last October that it was necessary to further reduce the monetization and resettlement ratio of shed reform. In the future, the shed reform financing will be mainly based on shed reform special debt.

The scale of the shed reform and the monetization ratio are both reduced, which means that in 19 years of real estate sales, investment will be subject to downward pressure on relays.


3 Infrastructure underpinning economy, both hard and soft infrastructure has become an important driver of underpinning economy.

At the end of July last year, the Politburo meeting clearly stated that “we should make up for shortcomings as the current key task of deepening supply-side structural reforms and increase the strength of shortcomings in the infrastructure sector.”

At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference also needed to “increase the strength of shortcomings in infrastructure and other areas”, “strengthen the construction of new infrastructure” and “intensify investment in intercity transportation, logistics, and municipal infrastructure.”

  Midwest Rail Lines, Eastern Rail Transit, and 5G Networks.

Local governments implemented the spirit of the Central Committee in the communiqués of the two sessions, and generally proposed that they “expand effective investments” and “implement key projects to supplement shortcomings.”

Specifically, the infrastructure projects in the central and western provinces are dominated by railways, highways, airports, reservoirs, waterways and other traditional infrastructures, while the infrastructure projects in the developed provinces are dominated by rail transit and underground corridors.

As a typical representative of the new economy, the information service industry has also received widespread attention from local governments, and provinces have proposed to strengthen the construction of information infrastructure and accelerate the pace of 5G business.


4 The policy cares for private enterprises, improves endogenous power, and centrally sets the tone to support the development and growth of private enterprises.

The General Secretary had proposed at the private enterprise forum in early November last year to “strongly support the development and growth of private enterprises”, and proposed to improve the burden of corporate taxes and fees, solve the problem of difficult financing for private enterprises, create a fair competition environment, and improve the implementation of policies.In order to establish a new type of political and business relations, and protect entrepreneurs’ personal and property safety, the policy changes in six aspects.

At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference also pointed out that a stable monetary policy should “solve the problem of difficult financing of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises”, and accelerate the reform of the economic system to “support the development of private enterprises, establish a legalized institutional environment, and protectPrivate entrepreneurs’ personal and property safety. ”

  Local policies have been adopted to protect the development of private enterprises.

In the context of the central government’s setting and supporting the development and growth of private enterprises, local governments have also issued policies to protect the development of private enterprises, which is much stronger than in previous years.

Judging from the two conferences in each province in 19, while supplementing the six measures of the central government, there are three major highlights: First, the introduction of provincial policies and measures, but Jilin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, and GansuProvinces and other provinces have issued regulations to predict the system to support the healthy development of the private economy.

The second is to propose financing support targets, such as Tianjin, Jilin, Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei, and Chongqing all proposed the establishment of a private enterprise rescue fund of 10 billion US dollars; some of these provinces have also established private enterprise development funds, reloans and rediscount funds, financingTarget size of the Guaranteed Development Fund.The third is to break through the barriers to entry of private enterprises in some areas, and selected Jilin to break through barriers in education, tourism, and culture; Chongqing proposed to relax the entry system for public services, infrastructure, and restructuring of state-owned enterprises; Gansu proposed to further open the airport, power, oil and gasAccess to exploration and development, transportation and other fields.


The speed of kinetic energy conversion quietly increased. In the announcement of the local two conferences, there were relatively a lot of efforts to stabilize employment, transform and upgrade, and deepen reforms. This is in line with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. These are the three bright spots on the supply side, and also indicate that economic energy conversion promotes speeding up.


1 From stable employment to hiring talents, stable employment ranks first.

At the end of July last year, the Politburo meeting proposed “six stable” and stable employment topped the list. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference also put “stabilizing employment in a prominent position” and “implementing the employment priority policy”.

In response to the central government’s call, the local governments have stated in their communiqués of the two sessions of the CPC Central Committee that they must “join the employment priority policy” and “implement a more active employment policy”.

And “grasping college graduates, migrant workers, retired soldiers, laid-off workers and other populations for employment” and “ensuring the zero clearing of zero-employment families” have also become high-frequency words in the journal.

  Places are highly recognized for employment.

From the perspective of new employment targets, the new urban employment targets announced by the 28 provinces totaled 14.91 million, significantly higher than the target value (11 million people) and actual value (13.61 million people) set by the NPC and CPPCC last year.

Looking at the unemployment rate target, the average registered unemployment rate target for each province is 4.

Below 5%, with the exception of Shanxi, the provincial average target for surveyed unemployment rate is 5.

Less than 5%, which is consistent with the goals set by the National People ‘s Congress and the National People ‘s Congress early last year.

  Talent strategy continues to heat up.

When formulating employment policies, local governments must also combine the advantages of local industries and launch various talent attraction programs to help local economic transformation.

Among them, the eastern provinces pay more attention to attracting “strategic technology talents” and “leading scientific research talents”, while the central and western provinces pay more attention to “skilled talents” and “craftsman talents”.


2 Speed up technological innovation and transformation.

At the end of the 18th Central Economic Work Conference, seven key tasks were proposed, of which “promoting the continuous development of manufacturing” and “promoting the formation of a strong domestic market” ranked first and second.

Specifically, the former requires “enhancing the technological innovation capability of the manufacturing industry, improving the demand-oriented, industry-university-integrated innovation mechanism with enterprises as the mainstay, and increasing the support for SME innovation”;Renewing equipment, accelerating the pace of 5G business, and strengthening the construction of emerging infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and the Internet of Things. ”

  The central and western regions are undergoing heavy technological transformation and upgrading, and the main strategy in the east is emerging.

From the perspective of the two local conferences, the Northeast and Central and Western regions are more focused on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and are more prominently expanded; the developed eastern regions are more focused on creating industrial growth represented by new materials, new energy, intelligent manufacturing, and biomedicine, and more prominently in technology applicationsIt is the consensus of local governments to accelerate 5G commerce and strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as the Industrial Internet.


3 The evolution of the system released the dividends.

Last year was the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference “adhered to the impetus for reform and deepened the reform of state-owned and state-owned enterprises, finance, taxation, land, market access, social management and other areas.””Accelerated economic system reform” ranked fifth, specifically expanding and accelerating the reform of state-owned and state-owned enterprises, supporting the development of private enterprises, deepening the reform of the financial system, and advancing the reform of the fiscal and taxation system.

  ”Deepening the reform” has also become the focus of local governments in 19 years. Hainan Province clearly pointed out that 19 years is “the key year for Hainan to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up.”

In terms of specific content, the reform contents of the provinces mainly cover the following aspects: First, it has become a consensus to accelerate the reform of the economic system.

Provinces have generally proposed improvements in state-owned enterprise reforms, support for private enterprises, financial reforms, and fiscal and taxation reforms.

Among them, the reform of state-owned enterprises focuses on promoting the reform of mixed ownership and realizing the transformation from managing enterprises to managing capital. The three northeastern provinces have proposed key state-owned enterprises for reform; fiscal and tax reforms focus on tax and fee reductions, optimizing fiscal expenditures, and revitalizing fiscal stock funds.Liaoning and Guangxi mean the overall expenditure reduction target clearly set out; financial reform focuses on alleviating restructuring financing difficulties and expensive financing issues, and developing a multi-level capital market. Shanghai and Zhejiang have put forward specific solutions based on local conditions.

  The second is to accelerate the reform of land, resources and other factors.

Provincial revitalization is common in the provinces in their two sessions, and rural land system reform has become an important way.

In addition, the central and western provinces have also focused on promoting energy and resource product reforms, especially price reforms in the areas of electricity, natural gas, and urban transportation.

  The third is to roll out more reforms of the social system.

These include the reform of the education system, the reform of the medical system, the reform of the pension system, and the reform of the housing provident fund system.

19 years is the key year to build a well-off society at a high level. Protecting and improving people’s livelihood is still one of the key tasks of local governments.

  After sorting out, Haitong Securities is believed that the merger policy may directly or indirectly benefit the eight major divisions.

Strengthen innovation-driven development, including biological breeding (such as Denghai Seed Industry, Longping Hi-Tech, Dunhuang Seed Industry, Fengle Seed Industry, etc.), heavy agricultural machinery (such as YTO, Jifeng Technology, etc.), and smart agriculture (such as smart agriculture, etc.);  2.
Expand domestic imports of scarce agricultural products (such as Dongling grain and oil); 3.
Implement soybean revitalization plan (such as the Great Northern Wilderness (protection of rights), etc.) to support rapeseed production in the Yangtze River Basin (such as Longping High-tech, Agricultural Development Seeds, etc.); Implementation of dairy industry revitalization actions (such as western animal husbandry, manor ranch, etc.); 5.
Accelerate a new round of rural power grid transformation (such as Zhongyuan shares); 6.
Strengthen rural pollution control and ecological environment protection (such as Dayu water saving, etc.); 7.
Deepen the reform of rural land system (such as Xinyangfeng, Suken Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, etc.); 8.
Intensify the monitoring and control of animal epidemic situations such as African swine fever (such as Wen’s shares, Shengnong Development, etc.).

Successfully run (000606): high performance growth and increase holdings to optimize corporate governance

Successfully run (000606): high performance growth and increase holdings to optimize corporate governance
The company’s 2019Q1 performance increased by 93%, and the chairman plans to increase its holdings of 100 million to 200 million. The company will release the 2018 performance report and 2019Q1 performance forecast.The company expects to achieve revenue 7 in 2018.3.9 billion, an annual increase of 43.15%, excluding manufacturing industry growth for many years under the same caliber 122.46%; net profit attributable to mother 1.8.4 billion, an increase of 187 in ten years.25%, slightly lower than the performance forecast.In Q1 2019, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be about 80 million yuan, and the value added will be 93 in the future.36%, in line with expectations.At the same time, the chairman Peng Cong announced that based on his confidence in the future development, he planned to increase the company’s shares in the amount of 100 million to 200 million US dollars within 6 months.The company’s EPS for 2018-2020 is expected to be 0.24, 0.55, 0.73 yuan, to maintain a buy. The company’s beautiful financial data is gradually verifying the company’s business development logic. The performance data in 2018 is lower than the performance forecast. The main reason is that the company’s labor dispatch business income in the human capital business was confirmed by the merger method instead of 南京夜网 the net method. As a result, the companyThe human capital business is mainly a flexible employment business, so it will have little impact on revenue in 2019.The net profit attributable to mothers is lower than the advance notice, which is mainly due to the company increasing the ratio of R & D expenditure expense according to the principle of caution.On the whole, the company’s 2018 annual report and 2019Q1 performance have achieved high-speed growth, which also validates our point of view: based on the company’s huge offline hundreds of cities and thousands of stores channels, the company grasps the national fiscal and tax reform dividends, and human capital and consulting services welcomeHigh growth. It is expected that high growth will be maintained in 2019. The turning point of business and performance, the company is 北京保健按摩 expected to usher in Davis double-click. The company’s core value is based on the huge offline channel flow throughout the country, providing small, micro enterprises with human, financial, tax and other value-added services, and continuously increasing the ARPU value of small and micro enterprises.At present, the company’s development of consulting and human capital value-added business has achieved rapid growth, which is the basis for high growth potential in 2019 performance.In the long run, the company will gradually develop financial insurance, individual tax declaration, and enterprise service intermediary platforms.One of the tax declaration services belongs to the blue ocean market, with potential potential.According to IRS statistics, the size of the US tax declaration market in 2016 was approximately $ 11 billion.The top tax service giants of H & R Block and Intuit were born, with a total market value of more than 60 billion U.S. dollars.The company, as the leader of domestic bookkeeping, extends its advantages from small and micro enterprises’ tax reporting to individual tax declaration first-mover advantages, and is expected to seize the opportunity of individual tax declaration services in the blue ocean market. Chairman increased holdings, former controlling shareholders reduced holdings, and corporate governance structure is being optimized. Announced last week: 1. Former controlling shareholder Tianjin Teda plans to reduce its 4% stake; 2. Shareholder Lian Lianggui (former chairman of Qinghai Gelatin, holding 16.78%) announced the termination of its concerted action relationship with Tianjin TEDA; 3. Shareholder Zhi Shangtian (holding 2 shares.88%) entrusted Peng Cong (the current chairman) to exercise all the voting rights of the shares. Peng Cong’s actual disposable voting rights of the company’s shares totaled 19.06%, becoming the company’s largest shareholder; 4, Peng Cong promised to hold 10 shares directly.20% statutory extension of the lock-up period until July 2, 2020; 5, this week announced that Peng Cong intends to increase holdings of 1 ppm to 200 million.The above series of announcements indicate that the current chairman is gradually grasping the actual control of the company and the corporate governance structure is expected to be optimized. High performance growth, low estimate, maintain buy rating. Considering that the company may reduce market profit margins in order to seize market share this year, it lowers the company’s net profit attributable to its parent from 2019 to 2020 to 4.2.3 billion (down 9).6%), 5.6.1 billion (down 6).7%).The company’s EPS for 2018-2020 is expected to be 0.24, 0.55, 0.73 yuan, corresponding to PE is 33, 14, 11 times.The average PE of comparable companies in the industry in 2019 is 26 times. As the company’s goodwill breakthrough suppresses conversion, the company’s target PE for 2019 is 20-26 times, and the corresponding target price is 11.0-14.3 yuan, gradually verified through the company’s business logic, the company’s expected expectations gradually improved, maintaining a buy. Risk reminders: 1. Intensified competition in the finance and tax industry; 2. Risks of the company’s goodwill spreading and impairment of goodwill.

Sun Paper (002078): Q3 results turn positive, production capacity is released, laying the foundation for long-term growth

Sun Paper (002078): Q3 results turn positive, production capacity is released, laying the foundation for long-term growth

The company released the third quarter report of 2019: report integration to achieve revenue 164.

0 billion (+1.

81%), net profit attributable to mother 14.

85 billion (-17.

57%), net of non-attributed net profit14.

5.8 billion (-18.


Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 56 in a single quarter.

25 billion (-0.

20%), net profit attributable to mother 5.

9.8 billion (+4.

37%), deducting non-attribution net profit5.

9.5 billion (+4.

35%), the growth rate has achieved positive, and profits continue to improve.

The price increase in Q3 season has been successfully implemented, and the low price of pulp is good for the company’s profit: We estimate that the net profit of the company’s pulp and paper ton in Q3 is about 500+ yuan / ton (expected to be 300+ yuan and 400+ yuan / ton in Q1 and Q2)The item-level upward logic was fulfilled, thanks to: (1) the peak season for the sale of cultural paper in the third quarter, the single ton price of double offset paper / coated paper on September 30 increased by 42 yuan / 84 yuan earlier on June 30; (2)) Pulp raw materials are operating at a low level. On September 30, the single ton price of coniferous pulp / broad leaf pulp / inner plate pulp dropped by 30 US dollars / 175 US dollars / 121 yuan earlier than 30 June.

As of October 28, the single ton price of double offset paper / coated paper increased by 75 yuan / 150 yuan earlier than September 30, respectively, and the price increase continued to land.

Looking forward to Q4 and next year, we believe that: (1) the cultural / copper plate inventory is currently at a level, and the downstream demand is stable, and the subsequent paper price trend is expected to be stable and upward; (2) the global pulp port inventory days are still at historically high levels and still in destockingDuring the cycle, we expect that pulp prices will continue to be weak; (3) Recycling pulp and natural pulp will be put into production during the conversion year. The company’s self-sufficiency rate of waste paper pulp in the company’s kraft box business will benefit earnings.

Overall, we continue to be bullish on the company’s profitability.

The capacity has expanded steadily and the long-term growth path is clear: ending in March 19, the company has a total annual capacity of 412 paper and 170 starch pulp, 19Q4 will be put into operation to replace the natural high-yield biomass fiber project, and will be put into operation in the first half of 21Expected characteristic cultural paper project, Laos 80 case cardboard paper project.

In addition, the company plans to invest 22.9 billion yuan in Guangxi Beihai to build a 350-inch forest-pulp-paper integration project. The project will be carried out in two phases. The first phase of the project is planned to begin in September 2019 to construct an annual output of 80 dehydrated bleached chemical broadleaf pulp and 550,000 tons of culture.With paper, the construction period is two years; in the second phase, the annual output of the construction will be 60 into the pulp, 50 oriented special paper, the annual output will be 15 for household paper and 90 for white cardboard.

It is estimated that by September 2021, the company will have an annual production capacity of 592 notes and 250 pulp, which will effectively consolidate the company’s sales growth.

The gross profit margin increased quarter by quarter, and the expense ratio increased slightly: Q1-Q3’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 21.

1% (-4.

47pct), where Q1 / Q2 / Q3 are 17 respectively.

7% / 21.

77% / 23.

84%, a significant improvement from the previous quarter.

Comprehensive cost rate during the period of 10.

41% (+0.

29pct): The sales expense ratio increased by 0.

38pct to 3.

69%, due to the temporary increase in transportation costs; the management + R & D expense ratio increased by 0.

66 points to 4.

03%, including R & D expenses 2.

6.6 billion (+90.

34%), the company’s efforts to increase research and development; due to the reduction in interest expenses, the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.

76pct to 2.

69%.Taken together, Q1-Q3 returns to the parent net interest rate of 9.

06% (-2.

13pct), of which Q3 single quarter 10.

64% (+0.


The operating cash flow is stable, and the turnover efficiency of accounts receivable is maximized: at the end of the period, the company’s accounts and bills receivable total 40.

5.6 billion (earlier 19H1-2.

40,000 yuan), accounts receivable turnover days 27.

12 days (compared with 31 last year.

60 days); inventory 27.

8.4 billion (compared to 19H1 + 0.

4.3 billion), the inventory turnover days increase by 10 every year.

18 days to 51.

67 days; total bills and accounts payable 48.

3.8 billion (earlier 19H1-1.

4.6 billion); advance receipts 8.

6.1 billion (earlier 19H1-0.

35 billion).

Taken together, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities for one year.

540,000 yuan (compared with 32 last year).

7.5 billion).

In the short-term, the profit level will continue to rise 武汉夜生活网 upwards, and the long-term cumulative release will lay the foundation for the growth of multiple paper types. In the short-term, the price of cultural paper will remain stable, and the price of pulp will continue to weaken.Steady upwards; in the long run, the papermaking sector is king, and the upper reaches of Sun Paper continue to control pulp and control the raw materials, and carry out a variety of paper types. The capacity building speed is fast, which will effectively consolidate the company’s long-term vitality!

Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect the company’s revenue in 19-21 to be 226.



4.1 billion (+4.

1% / + 7.

5% / + 19.

1%), net profit attributable to mother 20.



2.4 billion (-6.

2% / + 17.

3% / + 22.

9%), corresponding to the current sustainable 杭州龙凤网 PE of 10.

09X / 8.

60X / 7.

00X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: RMB exchange rate depreciates sharply, raw material prices fluctuate, and capacity investment is less than expected