Haitong Securities: No. 1 document in 2019 hits eight major divisions and hopes to benefit
Haitong Securities Summary At present, the local two congresses have fully summarized. What kind of signals have been released by the provincial government work reports?
Adjusted the growth rate to return to the mainstream target range and cut back to the mainstream.
Judging from the 19-year GDP target growth rate of 30 provinces, Liaoning has not mentioned the desalination, 13 provinces are the target intervals, and 22 provinces have been lowered. Only Hubei and Hainan have increased slightly.
This is quite similar to the 16 years, and contrasts sharply with the “mainly flat, slowing down overall” in the past two years.
Reasons for provinces to reduce GDP growth.
First, the downward pressure on the economy has reappeared. In 18 years, the national GDP growth rate hit a new low for many years, and half of the provinces gradually realized the early GDP targets.
The second is the continuous squeeze out of data. For 13 years, the central government has promoted local governments to improve the government’s assessment system and shake off the burden of growth.
The fiscal and resident income targets have also been lowered.
The former is the result of the combined 夜来香体验网 economic downturn and tax cuts, while the other reflects the reduction in employment pressure of local governments under the background that the goal of doubling income has been completed in advance.
Investment impulse has become a thing of the past, dilute investment goals, and the downward adjustment is still the mainstream.
Investment is an important driving force for local governments to drive the economy. Therefore, lowering the GDP target will inevitably also lower the investment target.
From the perspective of the 19-year growth of investment targets in various provinces, 12 have been downgraded. After being downgraded for many years in the central and western provinces, this year has been reduced to some extent. In the remaining provinces, 13 were downgraded. Only Tianjin increased slightly, continuing the downward adjustment.the trend of.
Land degradation has 上海夜网论坛 not been loosened, and the goal of shed reform has generally fallen.
19 provinces announced their 19-year shed reform targets, and the planned start-up volume has been reduced by 20% compared to the previous year. Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Sichuan and other large-scale shed reform provinces have significantly reduced their planned start-up volumes, with only 6 provinces slightly increasing.
The Ministry of Housing and Construction stated in October last year that the proportion of resettlement with monetization should be further reduced in the future.
The number of shed reforms and the monetization ratio are both reduced, and real estate sales are expected to be under pressure.
Infrastructure underpins the economy, both hard and soft.
Many provinces have proposed to “implement key projects to supplement shortcomings”, and infrastructure has become an important driver of the bottom-up economy.
Among them, the central and western regions are dominated by railways, highways, airports, reservoirs, and waterways; the eastern part is intersected by rails, and underground corridors are the major ones; the construction of information infrastructure has received extensive attention.
Policies protect private enterprises and improve endogenous motivation.
At the end of last year, the private enterprise forum and the central economic work conference all had to participate in “supporting the development and growth of private enterprises”. Provinces have incorporated their positions into the six central areas. There are three main types of policy measures.
The first is to introduce provincial regulations, the second is to raise financing targets, and the third is to break the barriers to entry.
In summary, in 19 years, local governments downplayed and lowered their investment growth targets, while also adjusting the focus of stable investment, no longer stimulating real estate, supporting infrastructure in a multi-pronged manner, and encouraging the development of private enterprises.
The acceleration of economic kinetic energy conversion has accelerated from stable employment to talent acquisition.
Local governments responded to the call of the central government, and in their announcements of the two sessions, they proposed a “re-employment priority policy”. The total number of newly-added urban employment targets announced by 28 provinces reached 14.91 million, and the target for surveying the unemployment rate was generally 4.
5% or less.
When formulating employment policies, the provinces generally adopted the advantages of local industries and launched talent attraction programs.
Among them, the eastern provinces pay more attention to attracting “strategic technology talents” and “leading scientific research talents”, while the central and western provinces pay more attention to “skilled talents” and “craftsman talents”.
Speed up technological innovation and transformation.
In the context of the urgent need for economic transformation and upgrading, local governments’ concerns over technological transformation and upgrading continue to rise.
In comparison, the northeast and central and western regions are more focused on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and are more prominently expanded; the developed eastern regions are more focused on creating industrial growth represented by new materials, new energy, intelligent manufacturing, and biomedicine, and more prominently in technology applications;It is also the consensus of local governments to speed up 5G commerce and strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as the Industrial Internet.
The system reform has released dividends.
“Deepening the reform” is still a key task of local governments in 19 years, and its potential remains unabated.
The reform content of each province mainly covers the following three aspects.
The first is the reform of the economic system. Among them, the reform of state-owned enterprises focuses on advancing mixed reforms to realize the transformation from managing enterprises to managing capital; fiscal and tax reforms focus on reducing taxes and fees, optimizing fiscal expenditures, and revitalizing financial stock funds; financial reforms focus on alleviating SMEsFinancing is difficult to finance expensive issues and develop a multi-level capital market.
Second, the reform of land, resources and other factors has accelerated. The reform of the rural land system is an important change in the revitalization of the countryside. The reform of the resources is an important means of revitalizing the economy and promoting transformation in the central and western regions.
Third, the social system reform has been rolled out at various points, including education, medical care, endowment insurance, housing provident funds and other related systems, which are important interventions to guarantee and improve people’s livelihood. In summary, the local government’s recognition of talents, technological innovation, and system reform is not only the implementation of the central spirit, but also an inevitable requirement for economic transformation and upgrading.
At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that 19 years is the key year for building a well-off society in an all-round way and do a good job of economic work.
Economic and social goals for the new year will be announced at the National Two Sessions in early March.
At present, the local two congresses have all announced, what kind of signals have been released by the provincial government work reports?
We will make a detailed analysis in this report.
Slow down the growth rate of mainstream 1.
1Economic growth target: Recurrence interval, generally lowered. On February 17, 30 provinces across the country have connected the two associations in series. The two associations in Shandong are still in progress.
Summarizing the economic growth targets announced by the provinces, there are two major characteristics: First, the target range is reproduced.
Of the 30 provinces, 29 have announced specific GDP growth targets.
Thirteen provinces have set growth targets as intervals. The background is that at the end of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 18 years, “maintain economic operation in a reasonable interval” was re-mentioned.
This is quite similar to the 16 years. At the end of 15, the central government downplayed the growth target and set a “reasonable interval”. At the beginning of 16 the local two associations first appeared in the GDP target interval, and the number exceeded 9.
The second is to cut back to the mainstream.
Taking into account the comparability of economic targets over the years, we do a simple treatment and replace the target interval with the median of the target interval.
We found that with the 18-year rating, 22 provinces in 19 lowered their GDP growth targets, 5 provinces remained the same, and only Hubei and Hainan increased slightly.
Among the provinces that were downgraded, Chongqing, Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang dropped the average by more than a single digit.
If the lower limit of the target interval is used to replace the interval, none of the 29 provinces will increase.
A similar manifestation appeared in 14-16 years, when at the same time, more than half of the provinces also lowered their growth targets, and rarely raised them.
2 Behind the slowdown in growth: Active decompression and the goal of reducing water levels in all provinces are mainly due to the following two reasons: First, the downward pressure on the economy is reappearing.
Regardless of the 16 years when the “target interval” first appeared, or the 14-16 years when more than half of the provinces lowered their growth targets, the background was the downward growth of the previous year.
The same is true this year. The growth rate of national GDP in 18 years has dropped to 6.
6%, and a new low since 91, only slightly higher than the target set earlier.
Local budget, more than 16 provinces can achieve the GDP growth target.
The downward pressure on the economy has reappeared, and local governments have lowered their growth targets to alleviate the pressure.
Obviously, the six provinces of Chongqing, Jilin, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Hainan and Heilongjiang all had 18-year GDP growth rates below the target growth rate by more than one, which led to a significant reduction in Chongqing and Heilongjiang’s 19-year GDP targets.
The second is that data is constantly squeezed out.
With the changes in the stages of economic development in developing countries, the assessment of GDP growth targets has gradually faded, and economic growth has become more qualitative. For 13 years, local governments have taken the initiative to expand the moisture in past economic data and shake off the burden of growth.
For example, provinces such as Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Tianjin have voluntarily reduced economic data.
And the difference between the nominal average GDP growth rate of each province and the national GDP growth rate was 2 from 08-12.
About 4%, continued to decline to 0 in 18 years.
The continuous expansion of local economic data also makes it necessary to reduce its growth target.
3 Reduced income targets: fiscal constraints, consumption pressure and economic growth targets have been reduced simultaneously with income growth targets, including fiscal revenue and household income.
Fiscal revenue targets are generally lowered.
Both the economy and prices in 16 and 17 years have picked up, making local governments turn optimistic. A large number of provinces have also raised their fiscal revenue targets while lowering their economic targets.
However, from the perspective of the two local conferences in 19 years, 7 of the 30 provinces did not raise the target of fiscal revenue growth, and 19 provinces have lowered their fiscal revenue targets, and none of them have been raised.
The budget and the downward economic pressure have reappeared, causing the local government to once again turn to corrections; revised, at the end of the 18th Central Economic Work Conference proposed “to implement larger scale tax and fee reductions”, local fiscal revenue is bound to face downward pressure.
Residents’ income targets are slowly decreasing.As the income of rural and urban residents successively completed the “double” goal of the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 17 and 18, the restrictions on local government residents’ income targets were eased. They were mainly unchanged from 17 and 18, and some of them were reduced toDowngrading.
This hugely and truly reflects the improvement of local governments’ pressure on the economy and employment.
And the income of residents continued to increase, and the overdraft consumption of debt to buy a house in the early period has also made local governments cautious about consumption prospects. Of the 18 provinces that announced growth targets for retail sales of social consumer goods, 7 were flat and 9 were downgraded.
Investment impulse is a thing of the past 2.
1 Dilute the investment targets. The downward adjustment is still the mainstream investment target of many provinces, and the remaining provinces are mainly lowered.
In the past, local governments used fixed asset investment as an important driver of GDP, and local investment impulse was very strong.
And lowering the GDP growth target means that the investment growth target must also be lowered.
We can see that the 19-year growth target of fixed asset investment in each province has simultaneously exhibited two major characteristics: First, collectively dilute the investment target.
Although the goal of diluting investment has been normalized for 15 years, there are still 12 provinces with unpublished investment targets in 19 years.
Among them, Shanghai has not mentioned investment targets for 8 consecutive years, and Beijing, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Heilongjiang have not mentioned for 5 consecutive years.
Obviously, the provinces that have newly downgraded investment targets this year are generally located in the central and western regions, reflecting the unsustainable high investment growth in the central and western regions.
Second, the growth target was generally lowered.
Of the 18 provinces with announced investment growth targets, 13 were downgraded and 4 were flat. Only Tianjin increased slightly, continuing the downward trend of investment targets in all provinces in the past 15 years.
Although Tianjin has raised its investment target, its economic growth target is still being reduced.
The provinces have been completely diluted and their investment targets have been lowered. The focus of investment has also been adjusted, as shown in the following three aspects: 2.
2 Real estate standardization has not been loosened. The goal of shed reform has been universal.
At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that “to establish a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real market” and “persist to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation.”
Local governments have responded to the call and stated in their announcements that they “stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations of responsibility”.
Reduce the shed reform target and reduce the proportion of monetization.
At present, 19 provinces have announced targets for 19 years of shed reform, with plans to start a total of 2.6 million units, a 20% decrease from 18 years.
Among them, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Sichuan, and other major provinces plan to reduce the number of construction starts significantly, Henan dropped by as much as 70%, while only 6 provinces slightly increased.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said at a conference last October that it was necessary to further reduce the monetization and resettlement ratio of shed reform. In the future, the shed reform financing will be mainly based on shed reform special debt.
The scale of the shed reform and the monetization ratio are both reduced, which means that in 19 years of real estate sales, investment will be subject to downward pressure on relays.
3 Infrastructure underpinning economy, both hard and soft infrastructure has become an important driver of underpinning economy.
At the end of July last year, the Politburo meeting clearly stated that “we should make up for shortcomings as the current key task of deepening supply-side structural reforms and increase the strength of shortcomings in the infrastructure sector.”
At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference also needed to “increase the strength of shortcomings in infrastructure and other areas”, “strengthen the construction of new infrastructure” and “intensify investment in intercity transportation, logistics, and municipal infrastructure.”
Midwest Rail Lines, Eastern Rail Transit, and 5G Networks.
Local governments implemented the spirit of the Central Committee in the communiqués of the two sessions, and generally proposed that they “expand effective investments” and “implement key projects to supplement shortcomings.”
Specifically, the infrastructure projects in the central and western provinces are dominated by railways, highways, airports, reservoirs, waterways and other traditional infrastructures, while the infrastructure projects in the developed provinces are dominated by rail transit and underground corridors.
As a typical representative of the new economy, the information service industry has also received widespread attention from local governments, and provinces have proposed to strengthen the construction of information infrastructure and accelerate the pace of 5G business.
4 The policy cares for private enterprises, improves endogenous power, and centrally sets the tone to support the development and growth of private enterprises.
The General Secretary had proposed at the private enterprise forum in early November last year to “strongly support the development and growth of private enterprises”, and proposed to improve the burden of corporate taxes and fees, solve the problem of difficult financing for private enterprises, create a fair competition environment, and improve the implementation of policies.In order to establish a new type of political and business relations, and protect entrepreneurs’ personal and property safety, the policy changes in six aspects.
At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference also pointed out that a stable monetary policy should “solve the problem of difficult financing of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises”, and accelerate the reform of the economic system to “support the development of private enterprises, establish a legalized institutional environment, and protectPrivate entrepreneurs’ personal and property safety. ”
Local policies have been adopted to protect the development of private enterprises.
In the context of the central government’s setting and supporting the development and growth of private enterprises, local governments have also issued policies to protect the development of private enterprises, which is much stronger than in previous years.
Judging from the two conferences in each province in 19, while supplementing the six measures of the central government, there are three major highlights: First, the introduction of provincial policies and measures, but Jilin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, and GansuProvinces and other provinces have issued regulations to predict the system to support the healthy development of the private economy.
The second is to propose financing support targets, such as Tianjin, Jilin, Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei, and Chongqing all proposed the establishment of a private enterprise rescue fund of 10 billion US dollars; some of these provinces have also established private enterprise development funds, reloans and rediscount funds, financingTarget size of the Guaranteed Development Fund.The third is to break through the barriers to entry of private enterprises in some areas, and selected Jilin to break through barriers in education, tourism, and culture; Chongqing proposed to relax the entry system for public services, infrastructure, and restructuring of state-owned enterprises; Gansu proposed to further open the airport, power, oil and gasAccess to exploration and development, transportation and other fields.
The speed of kinetic energy conversion quietly increased. In the announcement of the local two conferences, there were relatively a lot of efforts to stabilize employment, transform and upgrade, and deepen reforms. This is in line with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. These are the three bright spots on the supply side, and also indicate that economic energy conversion promotes speeding up.
1 From stable employment to hiring talents, stable employment ranks first.
At the end of July last year, the Politburo meeting proposed “six stable” and stable employment topped the list. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference also put “stabilizing employment in a prominent position” and “implementing the employment priority policy”.
In response to the central government’s call, the local governments have stated in their communiqués of the two sessions of the CPC Central Committee that they must “join the employment priority policy” and “implement a more active employment policy”.
And “grasping college graduates, migrant workers, retired soldiers, laid-off workers and other populations for employment” and “ensuring the zero clearing of zero-employment families” have also become high-frequency words in the journal.
Places are highly recognized for employment.
From the perspective of new employment targets, the new urban employment targets announced by the 28 provinces totaled 14.91 million, significantly higher than the target value (11 million people) and actual value (13.61 million people) set by the NPC and CPPCC last year.
Looking at the unemployment rate target, the average registered unemployment rate target for each province is 4.
Below 5%, with the exception of Shanxi, the provincial average target for surveyed unemployment rate is 5.
Less than 5%, which is consistent with the goals set by the National People ‘s Congress and the National People ‘s Congress early last year.
Talent strategy continues to heat up.
When formulating employment policies, local governments must also combine the advantages of local industries and launch various talent attraction programs to help local economic transformation.
Among them, the eastern provinces pay more attention to attracting “strategic technology talents” and “leading scientific research talents”, while the central and western provinces pay more attention to “skilled talents” and “craftsman talents”.
2 Speed up technological innovation and transformation.
At the end of the 18th Central Economic Work Conference, seven key tasks were proposed, of which “promoting the continuous development of manufacturing” and “promoting the formation of a strong domestic market” ranked first and second.
Specifically, the former requires “enhancing the technological innovation capability of the manufacturing industry, improving the demand-oriented, industry-university-integrated innovation mechanism with enterprises as the mainstay, and increasing the support for SME innovation”;Renewing equipment, accelerating the pace of 5G business, and strengthening the construction of emerging infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and the Internet of Things. ”
The central and western regions are undergoing heavy technological transformation and upgrading, and the main strategy in the east is emerging.
From the perspective of the two local conferences, the Northeast and Central and Western regions are more focused on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and are more prominently expanded; the developed eastern regions are more focused on creating industrial growth represented by new materials, new energy, intelligent manufacturing, and biomedicine, and more prominently in technology applicationsIt is the consensus of local governments to accelerate 5G commerce and strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as the Industrial Internet.
3 The evolution of the system released the dividends.
Last year was the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference “adhered to the impetus for reform and deepened the reform of state-owned and state-owned enterprises, finance, taxation, land, market access, social management and other areas.””Accelerated economic system reform” ranked fifth, specifically expanding and accelerating the reform of state-owned and state-owned enterprises, supporting the development of private enterprises, deepening the reform of the financial system, and advancing the reform of the fiscal and taxation system.
”Deepening the reform” has also become the focus of local governments in 19 years. Hainan Province clearly pointed out that 19 years is “the key year for Hainan to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up.”
In terms of specific content, the reform contents of the provinces mainly cover the following aspects: First, it has become a consensus to accelerate the reform of the economic system.
Provinces have generally proposed improvements in state-owned enterprise reforms, support for private enterprises, financial reforms, and fiscal and taxation reforms.
Among them, the reform of state-owned enterprises focuses on promoting the reform of mixed ownership and realizing the transformation from managing enterprises to managing capital. The three northeastern provinces have proposed key state-owned enterprises for reform; fiscal and tax reforms focus on tax and fee reductions, optimizing fiscal expenditures, and revitalizing fiscal stock funds.Liaoning and Guangxi mean the overall expenditure reduction target clearly set out; financial reform focuses on alleviating restructuring financing difficulties and expensive financing issues, and developing a multi-level capital market. Shanghai and Zhejiang have put forward specific solutions based on local conditions.
The second is to accelerate the reform of land, resources and other factors.
Provincial revitalization is common in the provinces in their two sessions, and rural land system reform has become an important way.
In addition, the central and western provinces have also focused on promoting energy and resource product reforms, especially price reforms in the areas of electricity, natural gas, and urban transportation.
The third is to roll out more reforms of the social system.
These include the reform of the education system, the reform of the medical system, the reform of the pension system, and the reform of the housing provident fund system.
19 years is the key year to build a well-off society at a high level. Protecting and improving people’s livelihood is still one of the key tasks of local governments.
After sorting out, Haitong Securities is believed that the merger policy may directly or indirectly benefit the eight major divisions.
Strengthen innovation-driven development, including biological breeding (such as Denghai Seed Industry, Longping Hi-Tech, Dunhuang Seed Industry, Fengle Seed Industry, etc.), heavy agricultural machinery (such as YTO, Jifeng Technology, etc.), and smart agriculture (such as smart agriculture, etc.); 2.
Expand domestic imports of scarce agricultural products (such as Dongling grain and oil); 3.
Implement soybean revitalization plan (such as the Great Northern Wilderness (protection of rights), etc.) to support rapeseed production in the Yangtze River Basin (such as Longping High-tech, Agricultural Development Seeds, etc.); Implementation of dairy industry revitalization actions (such as western animal husbandry, manor ranch, etc.); 5.
Accelerate a new round of rural power grid transformation (such as Zhongyuan shares); 6.
Strengthen rural pollution control and ecological environment protection (such as Dayu water saving, etc.); 7.
Deepen the reform of rural land system (such as Xinyangfeng, Suken Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, etc.); 8.
Intensify the monitoring and control of animal epidemic situations such as African swine fever (such as Wen’s shares, Shengnong Development, etc.).