Zoomlion (000157): Confidence in the next cycle to benefit the underlying equity incentive show
Core products benefit from the post-cycle of infrastructure and real estate. Fair incentives highlight solid growth confidence. Infrastructure-related policies have continued to increase over the past 10 months. Real estate investment shows that there is room for more post-cycle varieties such as cranes and 上海夜网论坛 concrete machinery.
The competitiveness of the company’s core products has been enhanced, and a new round of equity incentives has shown steady growth confidence, and the performance growth rate continues to lead the industry as a whole.
Maintain profit forecast, EPS is expected to be 0 in 19-21.
72 yuan, PE is 11.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Infrastructure construction is gradually strengthened, land revenue is outstanding, and cranes and concrete machinery have additional growth space. From January to October 19, domestic infrastructure investment growth has increased.
26%, transportation, environmental protection and other shortcomings continued to increase investment, investment growth rate ahead of the overall infrastructure investment growth rate.
The State Council reduced 北京夜网 the minimum capital ratio for some infrastructure projects on November 13. The strength of infrastructure construction in 2020 will benefit from the increase in financial support and the “steady growth” underpinning effect.
Real estate investment showed expected growth, with an average domestic growth of 10 in 1-10 months.
3%, of which the growth rate of new starts in October picked up, and the growth rate of completion improved.
We expect that the market for crane equipment and concrete equipment will have more room for growth in the next 2-3 years, mainly due to infrastructure shortcomings, new rural construction, stock renewal, environmental protection elimination and renewal, and artificial substitution effects.
The performance evaluation target is relatively stable, focusing on long-term incentives and constraints. The company launched a new round of equity incentive budget on November 15, and plans to recruit 1,200 employees, including 16 supervisors.
We estimate that the performance evaluation base for this incentive is expected to be 25.
28ppm (average net profit attributable to mothers in 17-19 years), corresponding to a target net profit of 20-22 years is 45.
490,000 yuan, three-year performance growth rate of 8% / 6% / 5% in ten years; three-year net profit totaled 143.
910,000 yuan, if the share payment fee is added, the total is 156 in three years.
The assessment targets show the company’s confidence in the steady growth of its performance in the next three years.
The existing compensation structure of the company’s core operation and management team is single, and the implementation of the effective 17-year distribution incentives is conducive to the long-term incentives and constraints of the core team.
In the first three quarters of 19, the performance increased rapidly, and the profitability increased rapidly. From January to September of 19, the company achieved operating income of 31.8 billion yuan / + 51%, which was attributed to its parent net profit of 34.
800 million / + 167%.
The high performance benefited from: 1) the company’s continuous increase in orders and sales of concrete equipment and lifting equipment; 2) pump trucks, tower cranes, engineering cranes, etc. 4.
The market coverage of 0-series core products has increased, and product competitiveness has increased.
Gross profit margin was 29 from January to September.
8% / + 3.
45 pct with a net interest rate of 10.
9% / + 4.
78 pct, the profitability increased due to: 1) the improvement of the core product structure of lifting machinery and concrete machinery; 2) the cost control was good, and the cost rate decreased during the period.
Maintain profit forecast and “Buy” rating. Net profit attributable to mothers is estimated to be 42 in 2019-21.
6/56.500 million, EPS is 0.
72 yuan, PE is 11.
The average PE value of domestic companies in the same industry for 20 years is 8.
9x, overseas leading CAT and Komatsu PE average of 12 years.
We predict that the construction machinery industry is expected to develop steadily in 2020. The company’s crane and tower crane business is expected to grow rapidly, and the performance growth rate is expected to continue to lead the industry as a whole.
Give company 2020 PE estimate 11x?
12x, corresponding to the target price of 6.
56 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: The domestic economy is down faster than expected; the growth rate of infrastructure investment has not increased as expected, and real estate investment has continued to narrow; the industry’s competitive environment has deteriorated; the market for new products has not expanded smoothly; the impact of impairment losses