Jianghai Securities: Demand for manufacturing PMI returns to boom range continues to improve

Jianghai Securities: Demand for manufacturing PMI returns to boom range continues to improve

-Jianghai Securities Asset Management Department ‘s March PMI data review 20190331 Quqing Bond Forum I. March ‘s official PMI data review: Manufacturing PMI returns to the economic range, and demand continues to improve March ‘s official PMI data released by the Statistics Bureau on Sunday morningThe manufacturing PMI is 50.

5%, higher than the previous value and the expected 49.

6%, the non-manufacturing PMI is 54.

8%, higher than the previous value and the expected 54.

4%, the comprehensive PMI is 54%, which is higher than the previous value of 52.

4%.

To be specific: The manufacturing PMI has returned to the economic range, and 厦门夜网 SMEs have improved significantly.

After the Spring Festival, the production of manufacturing enterprises gradually recovered, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 50 in March.

5%, an increase of 1 from last month.

3 averages, return to the extended range after falling below the critical point for 3 consecutive months.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises is 51.

1%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.

4 digits, while the PMI for small and medium businesses is 49.

9% and 49.

3%, up 3 from last month.

0 of 4.

0 single, democratic governments have continuously issued policies to increase support for SMEs. At present, the effect is expected to be gradually realized. It will be gradually reduced from April, and the benefits to manufacturing enterprises will be further increased.

  Both the production index and the new orders index rose to a six-month high, and supply and demand continued to pick up.

The March production index rose to a six-month high of 52.

7%, up 3 from last month.

The two averages are mainly the resumption of production restructuring of enterprises after the Spring Festival, but this year’s recovery rate is higher than the same period last year.

4 averages.

March new orders index was 51.

6%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.

Zero averages, which have continued to rise since returning to the economic range in February, indicating that demand continues to improve.

The expected index of production and operation activities was 56.

8%, an increase of 0 from last month.

At six levels, production is expected to continue to improve.

In general, after the disappearance of the Spring Festival factors and the recovery of the weather, corporate production has gradually resumed. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of steady growth policies, supply and demand divided by the recovery.

  The price index rose, and corporate purchasing intentions strengthened.

Driven by rising prices of means of production in the circulation sector, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials rose to 53 in March.

5% and 51.

4%, higher than last month 1.

6 and 2.

9 digits, 5 months high each year.

Among them, the average value of the price index of the two industries including petroleum processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing is 56.

Higher range above 0%.

The purchasing volume index for March rose by 2.9 perfect to 51.

2%, return to the expansion range, through the additional recovery of supply and demand, enterprises to expand procurement efforts.

The raw material and finished product inventory indexes were 48 in March.

4% and 47%, up 2 from the previous month.

1 and 0.

The replenishment rate of raw materials inventory for six units is significantly faster than that of finished products, reflecting the strong demand in the market, and the expected growth of the economy in the future, increasing the replenishment rate.

The new export order index and import index were 47.

1% and 48.

7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.

9 and 3.

Nine single ones are still below the critical point. With the global economic growth improving, the impetus for import and export is still insufficient.

  In terms of non-manufacturing, the non-manufacturing PMI index was 54 in March.

8%, an increase of 0 from last month.

Five averages, the highest since the fourth quarter of last year, higher than the same period last year.

The non-manufacturing new orders index was 52.

5%, an increase of 1 from last month.

8 digits, a new high since the second half of 2014.

By industry: the service industry is stable.

The service industry business activity index for March was 53.

6%, a slight increase of 0 from last month.

1 average.

With the acceleration of manufacturing production activities, the business activity index of the productive services industry retreated for the third consecutive month and recovered to 57.

8%, higher than last month 4.

8 averages.

From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of railway transportation, loading and unloading and warehousing, Internet software, and finance is 57.

In the high economic range above 0%, business has grown significantly and business activities have been active.

From the perspective of market demand, the new order index for the service industry was 51.

5%, up 1 from last month.

0 average, located in the extended range for three consecutive months.

  The construction industry is returning to a high economic range.

The construction industry business activity index was 61.

7%, up 2 from last month.

5 averages.

The employment of enterprises has increased this month, with the employment index at 54.

1%, an increase of 0 from last month.

Nine single ones indicate that the construction of production in the construction industry is accelerating through the start of climate change and warming after the festival.

From the perspective of market demand, the new order index is 57.

9%, up 5 from last month.

9 percentage points, a 15-month high, the use of infrastructure construction projects to accelerate the development of the industry is expected to continue to improve. In general, the PMI returned to the economic range in March, although there are certain scale factors, but the recovery rate is slightly higherIn the same period last year, in the case of a marked rebound in the production index, raw material inventories also rebounded significantly, and the rate of replenishment was faster than that of finished products, reflecting strong downstream demand., Hitting a new high since the second half of 2014, of which the new order index for the construction industry hit a new 15-month high, reflecting the gradual development of infrastructure and driving related demand to pick up.

In the future, with the gradual and steady growth of the policy, the probability of economic 杭州桑拿网 recovery will increase, and the potential pressure on the bond market will not be ignored.