Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) Update Study: Looking at the Value of the Specialty Preparation Sector from the Perspective of Diversity

Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) Update Study: Looking at the Value of the Specialty Preparation Sector from the Perspective of Diversity
[Key points for investment]With the company’s approval of several important generic drugs in the past two years and the consistency evaluation of multiple varieties, the research and development of generic drugs has entered into the cashing period.Great efforts are made to establish a sales team for specialized preparations and develop sales channels. The use of specialized preparations channels is gradually in place. The high-quality varieties in the non-infusion preparations sector will soon contribute to the profits. We believe that specialty preparations are expected to become another growth point for the company’s profits. As of now, a total of 31 (7 in 2017, 18 in 2018, and 6 in 2019) generic drugs have been approved for production (including varieties that have passed consistency evaluation), and 115 varieties are expected to be listed in the next three years.Among the currently approved varieties, escitalopram oxalate, parecoxib sodium for injection, dexmedetomidine hydrochloride injection, and zoledronic acid injection (for osteoporosis) will contribute to this year’s specialty 苏州桑拿网 preparations segment.Performance elasticity, especially escitalyl oxalate oxalate and parecoxib sodium for injection are quite capable of contributing performance.Esselglycerin Pulan tablets oxalate mainly focus on the collection and release and antidepressant product echelon advantages. Parecoxib sodium for injections looks at imported alternatives in the short to medium term, and may be concerned with its combination with opioids in the long term. The company reports that the product categories involve anti-infection, anti-tumor, anti-coagulation, hypoglycemic and many other disease areas. Among them, gefitinib, dapoxetine, vardenafil and other varieties will be quickly promoted to follow-up sales, includingDapoxetine can be used in combination with mainstream anti-ED drugs to take OTC-end channel volume; however, such varieties as sugandine gluconate injection, afatinib, and apixaban have not expired in China, soEven if the company is still unable to go on sale even after it is approved, the company can demonstrate its R & D capabilities in the first echelon while successfully positioning these duplicate alternative pharmaceutical varieties, and it can take the lead in import substitution after the patent is terminated. We believe that the value of the company’s specialty preparation segment is prominent. 1) Platform-oriented research and development has accumulated power and accumulated accumulation; 2) Build product echelons to exert synergistic effects; 3) Raw material-preparation integration to control the upstream of important specialty preparation varieties. [Investment suggestion]Based on the above judgments, we are optimistic about the company’s future development prospects and comprehensively consider the company’s various business conditions. It is expected that the company’s 19/20/21 annual revenue growth rate will be 3% and the revenue will be 64.05/65.97/67.9.5 billion; revenue for therapeutic infusion 19/20/21 growth rate was 29.64% / 22% / 15%, income is 47.46/57.90/66.5.9 billion; antibiotics revenue growth rate for the year 19/20/21 was 11.72% / 2.72% / 0.53% and income was 36.80/37.80/38.00 trillion; 19/20/21 revenue growth rate of other preparations is 53.30% / 33.32% / 23.00%, income is 45.20/60.26/74.1.2 billion. Based on the above estimates, we expect the company’s operating income for 2019/2020/2021 to be 195.80/224.23/248.9.5 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 15.97/19.37/22.2.5 billion, EPS 1.11/1.35/1.55 yuan. Segment estimation is used to estimate the company’s three major businesses: infusion, antibiotics and other preparations.1) Large infusion: Refer to comparable companies, although the average PE ratio of large infusion industry companies in 2020 is 13.18 times, but we believe that as the large infusion industry has entered the stage of deep integration and the shape of the oligarch is relatively stable, the company as an absolute leader in the industry tries to enjoy a certain estimated premium.It is predicted that the company’s large infusion sector will contribute 9 in 2020.US $ 3.6 billion, considering that the company’s estimates have changed due to changes in the previous market environment. In the long run, the leader of the large infusion industry will definitely benefit from the deep integration of the industry and the increase in concentration. There is estimated room for repair, giving 25 times PE in 2020, Corresponding to a market value of 23.4 billion; 2) Antibiotics: With reference to comparable companies, the average PE ratio of antibiotics companies in 2020 is 9.49 times, we believe that due to the company’s significant cost advantage in antibiotics and the increasing value of the entire industrial chain, the company’s forecast net profit in the antibiotics sector by 2020 is 6.300 million, giving 15 times PE, corresponding to a market value of 94.500 million; 3) Other preparations: With reference to comparable companies, the average PE ratio of other chemical companies in 2020 is 29.99 times, predicting that the company’s net profit for other preparations will be 3 in 2020.700 million, taking into account the company’s reorganization, hundreds of generic drugs will be approved for listing, including high-quality varieties of various injection dosage forms, given 30 times PE, corresponding market value of 11.1 billion.Based on the three-part estimates, we believe that the company’s reasonable estimate for 2020 is 439.500 million US dollars, irrespective of rights issue, corresponding to 30 in 2020.52 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. [Risk Tips]Competitive risks in the large infusion industry; product volume is not as expected; risk of R & D is not as expected;