Zijin Mining (601899): Net profit increased by 19-31% after deducting non-return to motherhood and production capacity release period will be entered after 2020

Zijin Mining (601899): Net profit increased by 19-31% after deducting non-return to motherhood and production capacity release period will be entered after 2020
The event company released a performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 41 trillion to 43 trillion in 2019, an increase of 0.06-2.0.6 million yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.15% to 5%.It is expected that the net profit of non-return to mothers will be realized in 201936.5 ‰ -40 ‰, an increase of 5 per year.89 to 9.$ 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19% to 31%. A brief comment on the increase in output of mineral products. The net profit after deducting non-attribution increased by 19% to 31%. Mineral gold and zinc were the main sources of profit for the company.6%, 27.6% and 11.6%).In 2019, the company’s mineral copper output was 37.0 tons, an annual increase of 49%; the output of mineral gold is 40.8 tons, an annual increase of 12%; mineral zinc 37.4In the initial period, the annual growth rate was 35%; the output growth promoted the performance growth. Mineral copper: The company’s output in 2022 will be nearly double that in 2019. The output of mineral copper (including copper concentrate, mineral electrolytic copper and mineral copper deposits) will be 37 tons in 1922, an increase of 49%. The company’s Q1 to Q4 mineral copper output in 2019They are 8.4, 8.7, 9.3, 10.6 ore, mineral copper output continued to rise.The company’s 20-year 22-year mineral copper production plan is 41, 50-56 and 67-74 tons, with an average annual compound oxide of 22% -26%. The 22-year mineral copper output ratio nearly doubled in 19 years. From the perspective of profitability, according to the company’s first three quarters of 2019, in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s ton of copper oxide was 3 per ton.570,000 yuan / ton (excluding tax), the cost per ton of copper is 2 yuan.04 million / ton, gross profit per ton of copper is 1.530,000 yuan / ton.The price of copper in the previous three quarters was 4.780,000 yuan / ton (including tax), Q4 price in 2019 is 4.77 million / ton (including tax), copper price will be 4 from the beginning of 2020.91 million / ton (including tax), the cost of mineral copper is relatively rigid, the conversion of copper prices has increased, and the company’s profitability has further improved.Production increased and prices rebounded. It is expected that the company’s mineral copper profits will increase significantly in 2020. Mineral gold: The compound annual growth rate of output in the next three years is 6.3-9.From the perspective of output, the company’s mineral gold output in 2019 is 40.8 tons, an annual increase of 12%; 2020-2022 mineral gold production plans are 44, 42-47 and 49-54 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% -9.8%.By 2022, the company’s mineral gold output will increase by 32% compared to 2019. From the perspective of profitability, in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s ton of mineral gold oxide was 290 yuan / g, the cost of ton mineral gold was 177 yuan / g, and the gross profit of ton mineral gold was 114 yuan / g.In the first three quarters of 2019, the gold price in the previous period was 306 yuan / gram, and the price in Q4 of 2019 was 341 yuan / gram. It is expected that the profitability of the company’s mineral copper will be further improved in 2019.Along with the company’s acquisition of the Buritica gold mine, Timok copper-gold mine and technically expanded Longnan Zijin, and other 南京龙凤网 high-quality projects have been put into production, the company’s cost of mineral gold has gradually increased and its profitability will further increase. Mineral zinc: The output will increase slightly in the next three years. From the perspective of output, the company’s mineral zinc will be 37 in 2019.4 Growth rate, with an annual growth rate of 35%; From 2020 to 2022, the mineral zinc production plans are 40, 37-41, and 38-42 indicators, with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9% -4.3%, a slight increase in future production. From the perspective of profitability, in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s ton of mineral zinc oxide was 1.10,000 yuan (excluding tax), the cost per ton of zinc is zero.6 trillion tons of mineral zinc gross profit is 0.50,000 yuan.The price of zinc in the previous three quarters was 2.0 million yuan / ton (including tax), Q4 2019 price is 1.80,000 yuan / ton (including tax), the company expects that the profitability of mineral zinc in Q4 company will decline in 2019. Estimates and investment recommendations The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.16 yuan, 0.23 yuan and 0.30 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 26.1x, 18.3 times and 14.4 times, considering the company’s industry level and future growth, the company is given a “Buy” rating with a 6-month target price of 5.75 yuan.