Jianghai Securities: Demand for manufacturing PMI returns to boom range continues to improve

Jianghai Securities: Demand for manufacturing PMI returns to boom range continues to improve

-Jianghai Securities Asset Management Department ‘s March PMI data review 20190331 Quqing Bond Forum I. March ‘s official PMI data review: Manufacturing PMI returns to the economic range, and demand continues to improve March ‘s official PMI data released by the Statistics Bureau on Sunday morningThe manufacturing PMI is 50.

5%, higher than the previous value and the expected 49.

6%, the non-manufacturing PMI is 54.

8%, higher than the previous value and the expected 54.

4%, the comprehensive PMI is 54%, which is higher than the previous value of 52.

4%.

To be specific: The manufacturing PMI has returned to the economic range, and 厦门夜网 SMEs have improved significantly.

After the Spring Festival, the production of manufacturing enterprises gradually recovered, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 50 in March.

5%, an increase of 1 from last month.

3 averages, return to the extended range after falling below the critical point for 3 consecutive months.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises is 51.

1%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.

4 digits, while the PMI for small and medium businesses is 49.

9% and 49.

3%, up 3 from last month.

0 of 4.

0 single, democratic governments have continuously issued policies to increase support for SMEs. At present, the effect is expected to be gradually realized. It will be gradually reduced from April, and the benefits to manufacturing enterprises will be further increased.

  Both the production index and the new orders index rose to a six-month high, and supply and demand continued to pick up.

The March production index rose to a six-month high of 52.

7%, up 3 from last month.

The two averages are mainly the resumption of production restructuring of enterprises after the Spring Festival, but this year’s recovery rate is higher than the same period last year.

4 averages.

March new orders index was 51.

6%, an increase of 1 from the previous month.

Zero averages, which have continued to rise since returning to the economic range in February, indicating that demand continues to improve.

The expected index of production and operation activities was 56.

8%, an increase of 0 from last month.

At six levels, production is expected to continue to improve.

In general, after the disappearance of the Spring Festival factors and the recovery of the weather, corporate production has gradually resumed. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of steady growth policies, supply and demand divided by the recovery.

  The price index rose, and corporate purchasing intentions strengthened.

Driven by rising prices of means of production in the circulation sector, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials rose to 53 in March.

5% and 51.

4%, higher than last month 1.

6 and 2.

9 digits, 5 months high each year.

Among them, the average value of the price index of the two industries including petroleum processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing is 56.

Higher range above 0%.

The purchasing volume index for March rose by 2.9 perfect to 51.

2%, return to the expansion range, through the additional recovery of supply and demand, enterprises to expand procurement efforts.

The raw material and finished product inventory indexes were 48 in March.

4% and 47%, up 2 from the previous month.

1 and 0.

The replenishment rate of raw materials inventory for six units is significantly faster than that of finished products, reflecting the strong demand in the market, and the expected growth of the economy in the future, increasing the replenishment rate.

The new export order index and import index were 47.

1% and 48.

7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.

9 and 3.

Nine single ones are still below the critical point. With the global economic growth improving, the impetus for import and export is still insufficient.

  In terms of non-manufacturing, the non-manufacturing PMI index was 54 in March.

8%, an increase of 0 from last month.

Five averages, the highest since the fourth quarter of last year, higher than the same period last year.

The non-manufacturing new orders index was 52.

5%, an increase of 1 from last month.

8 digits, a new high since the second half of 2014.

By industry: the service industry is stable.

The service industry business activity index for March was 53.

6%, a slight increase of 0 from last month.

1 average.

With the acceleration of manufacturing production activities, the business activity index of the productive services industry retreated for the third consecutive month and recovered to 57.

8%, higher than last month 4.

8 averages.

From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of railway transportation, loading and unloading and warehousing, Internet software, and finance is 57.

In the high economic range above 0%, business has grown significantly and business activities have been active.

From the perspective of market demand, the new order index for the service industry was 51.

5%, up 1 from last month.

0 average, located in the extended range for three consecutive months.

  The construction industry is returning to a high economic range.

The construction industry business activity index was 61.

7%, up 2 from last month.

5 averages.

The employment of enterprises has increased this month, with the employment index at 54.

1%, an increase of 0 from last month.

Nine single ones indicate that the construction of production in the construction industry is accelerating through the start of climate change and warming after the festival.

From the perspective of market demand, the new order index is 57.

9%, up 5 from last month.

9 percentage points, a 15-month high, the use of infrastructure construction projects to accelerate the development of the industry is expected to continue to improve. In general, the PMI returned to the economic range in March, although there are certain scale factors, but the recovery rate is slightly higherIn the same period last year, in the case of a marked rebound in the production index, raw material inventories also rebounded significantly, and the rate of replenishment was faster than that of finished products, reflecting strong downstream demand., Hitting a new high since the second half of 2014, of which the new order index for the construction industry hit a new 15-month high, reflecting the gradual development of infrastructure and driving related demand to pick up.

In the future, with the gradual and steady growth of the policy, the probability of economic 杭州桑拿网 recovery will increase, and the potential pressure on the bond market will not be ignored.

Qixin Group (002301) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Growth Exceeds Market Expectations, Large Clients Arranged Steady Progress

Qixin Group (002301) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Growth Exceeds Market Expectations, Large Clients Arranged Steady Progress
This report reads: Utilizing the advantages of product and supply chain integration, service capabilities, and information technology, the company is rapidly advancing in the layout of major customers and gradually entering the harvest period from the input stage. Cloud video conferencing will form an alternative synergy with office procurement. Investment Highlights: Maintain target price of 13.12 yuan, maintain overweight rating.With the advantages of product and 杭州桑拿 supply chain integration, service capabilities, and information technology, the company’s layout of major customers will rapidly advance, gradually entering the harvest period from the initial investment period, and the cloud video conference field is expected to form complementary synergies with office procurement business.Do we maintain the company 2019?The EPS forecast for 2021 is zero.44/0.58/0.74 yuan, maintaining a target price of 13.12 yuan, corresponding to about 30 times the PE in 2019, maintaining an overweight rating. Revenue growth exceeded market expectations.The company achieved operating income in the first quarter of 201910.7.5 billion, an increase of 53.75%, net profit attributable to 3905.50,000 yuan, an increase of 30.84%, realizing deduction of non-attributable net profit of 3466.20,000 yuan, an increase 无锡夜网 of 62.81%, due to the rapid development of B2B sales business, revenue growth exceeded market expectations, gradually increasing the number of large customers landing, B2B business scale is committed to maintaining a rapid growth trend. The office business has accumulated a lot, and the scale of revenue has achieved rapid growth.The company’s office business is gradually extending towards the direction of service providers. After years of accumulation and precipitation, product and supply chain integration, service capabilities and information technology advantages continue to be highlighted, and the accumulated service capabilities in the early stage have become prominent in the bidding of major customers.Highlighting that customer orders in reserve will gradually turn into revenue contributions. The strategic layout direction of “hardware + software + services” is advancing steadily, and the synergy effect is constantly exerted.With the introduction of the Group’s resource advantages, the company integrated the comprehensive integration of the products of the Shitong conference industry and launched the Cosmopolitan Mall, and launched multiple government procurement systems. Customers can purchase directly, and the integrated development of the Group’s resource customers continues to advance.With the further release of synergy between office collection and software services, the company will further strengthen its ability to serve major customers, increase customer stickiness and fully meet customer needs. Risk reminder: the risk of intensified competition in the office procurement industry, cloud video business expansion is less than expected

Guodian NARI (600406): Expanded growth orders accelerate upward

Guodian NARI (600406): Expanded growth orders accelerate upward

Investment Highlights The company released the third quarter report of 2019: the company achieved operating income of 171 in the first three quarters.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.

12%, net profit attributable to mother 21.

460,000 yuan, at least -7.

32%, realizing net profit deducted from non-mother 20.

1.3 billion, +4 a year.

34%; the company’s single quarter of 2019Q3 achieved revenue of 62.

460,000 yuan, at least -5.

41%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 9.

45 ‰, at least -1.

93%, realizing net profit deduction for non-attribution8.

99 ‰, +4 for ten years.

69%, performance in line with market expectations.

This is an average increase: gross profit margin and net profit attributable to mothers have increased significantly, especially Q3 single-quarter growth continued to increase.

The company has shown a good development trend, especially the single quarter gross margin reached 31.

13%, a new high in the past two years, showing the company’s shift to the pursuit of order quality and performance-oriented development thinking.

The company’s Q3 single-quarter revenue transition level has an impact on extending the pace of project delivery at this stage, and is expected to remain unchanged.

From the perspective of the company’s operating income confirmation rhythm from 2016 to 2018, the company’s performance is mainly in Q4, and there is no regular pattern during the quarter. The company’s revenue confirmation is mainly the project delivery rhythm.

With the overall expectations unchanged, we believe that Q4 revenue and performance growth will all exceed 20%, and the growth rate will continue to increase.

Orders are forward-looking 杭州夜网论坛 indicators with accurate performance, and more order growth rates should be added.

We believe that the growth rate of the company’s orders is particularly important. The company’s 2018 annual report revealed that the order growth rate was 11%, and Q4 was the peak in revenue recognition. As of the end of September, the company’s orders in hand were about 40 billion, which is expected to be cashed in large quantities in this yearWe have confidence in the company’s development goal of achieving a 10% increase in scale revenue.

Investment suggestion: Benefiting from the widespread investment landing, the order growth rate of the company is expected to rise to a higher level, leading to the improvement of the forecast. We adjust the profit forecast and estimate that the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 43.

6, 55.
杭州夜网论坛

4, 69.

1 ‰, the annual growth rate is 4 respectively.

7%, 27.

2%, 24.

7%, EPS is 0.

94, 1.

20, 1.

49 yuan, corresponding to the PE of the closing price on November 1, 2019 were 23.

8, 18.

7, 15.

0 times, raised to the “buy” level.

Risk reminder: The risk of flooding in the electric power Internet of Things is less than expected, UHV construction investment is less than expected, and the macroeconomic growth is slowing down.

Ping An of China (601318) commented in the 2019 Interim Report: profit growth exceeded expectations and end-to-end fixed value development

Ping An of China (601318) commented in the 2019 Interim Report: profit growth exceeded expectations and end-to-end fixed value development

Investment Highlights Ping An’s zero return growth of net profit in the first half of 2019. The profits and investment income released by the tax reduction policy increased compared with the same period of the previous year. At the same time, the growth rate of operating profits affected by alternative short-term factors also slightly exceeded the market.expected.

The company’s net profit attributable to mothers was 9.77 million yuan in 2019H1, a year-on-year increase of 68.

1%, the initial expected growth includes: 1.

The tax reduction policy will pay more than 104 in 18 years.

$ 5 million is released as profit this year, and tax cuts have also contributed to this year’s profit growth; 2.

The performance of the investment side was much better than the same period of last year. The total investment income of insurance assets reached 102.6 billion, an increase of 94 over the same period.

5%, Ping An’s use of IFRS9 accounting standards has also increased changes in investment income.

Under the influence of short-term factors such as alternative investment, the company’s operating profit for H1 2019 increased by 23.

8%, also higher than market expectations.

The life insurance liability end as a whole was in line with expectations. New policy premiums were affected by product mix adjustments and a high base. There was a negative growth, but the value rate of new business increased significantly, and the value of new business also achieved positive growth.

The company’s 2019H1 life insurance 佛山桑拿网 individual business new order scale premium growth rate was -7 in half a year.

The decrease of 1% was mainly due to the company’s Q1 initiative to adjust its product structure and focus on the operation of high-value products. As a result, the sales volume of Q1 annuity insurance fluctuated. Looking at Q2 alone, the growth rate of new orders was basically the same as that of the same period last year, and marginal improvement.

In addition, the high base last year is also one of the reasons for the replacement of new orders.

The optimization of the product structure has increased the company’s new business value rate in 2019H1 by 5 per year.

7 singles, driving new business value increase4.

7%.

In terms of manpower, the number of individual insurance agents at the end of 2019H1 was 128.

60,000, down 9 from the 武汉夜网论坛 end of last year.

3%, the main reason for the decline was the company’s voluntary removal of substandard agents.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the margins of the company’s debt side to continue to improve, with a focus on changes in hostages and quantities and on the product side.

The insurance industry’s premium income grew steadily. The comprehensive cost ratio increased slightly, and the decrease in effective tax rate significantly increased the profit of property insurance.

The company’s premium for property insurance business in 2019H1 will increase by 9 per year.

7%, basically the same as the industry growth rate, and the comprehensive cost reached 96 again.

6%, rising by 0 every year.

Eight averages, of which the expense ratio has decreased and the payout ratio has increased.

In terms of different types of insurance, the increase in the comprehensive cost ratio of automobile insurance and guaranteed insurance, which has a relatively high revenue share, is the leading factor in the rise of the company’s comprehensive cost ratio of property insurance.

Affected by the tax reduction policy, the effective tax rate of the company’s property insurance business in 2019H1 (without considering the 18-year reversion) is 21%, which has gradually decreased by 20 percentage points. Combined with the 18-year income reversion, the company’s property insurance business has realizedNet profit was 11.9 billion yuan, an increase of 100 in ten years.

8%.

Looking into the second half of the year, under the influence of the continuous increase in the scale of supervision, the proportion of property and insurance company’s fee expenses will still decline, and profitability is expected to continue to increase.

The asset allocation mainly increased the proportion of stocks and funds, and the better performance of the investment side drove the growth of profits and EV.

The company’s 2019H1 mainly increased the proportion of stocks and funds (+1.

1 per share), and long-term equity investments have also increased (+0.

2 averages).

The 2019H1 investment end performed well, driven by the recovery of the capital market, with a net investment return rate and a total investment return rate of 4, respectively.

5% (decade +0.

3 averages) and 5.

5% (ten years +1.

5 averages).The better performance of the investment side drove the growth of profits and EV, and short-term investment increased by 13 billion yuan, accounting for 18% of the net profit attributed to the mother.

4%; investment return difference in EV increments is 157.

6 ppm, accounting for 14 of the EV increase.

2%.

We slightly adjusted the company’s EVPS to 66 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

51 yuan, 80.

06 yuan and 95.

85 yuan, EPS is 8 respectively.

16 yuan, 9.

28 yuan and 11.

49 yuan to 2019.

8.

At 15 closing prices, the corresponding PEVs are 1.

3,1.

08 and 0.

9, the corresponding PE is 10.

58,9.

30 and 7.

51. We give a prudent overweight rating.

Risk warning: New single premium income is lower than expected, interest rates are down, and investment income is lower than expected.

China Merchants Highway (001965): excellent corporate governance, performance is both stable and growth

China Merchants Highway (001965): excellent corporate governance, performance is both stable and growth

Investment Highlights Event: China Merchants Highway released its 2019 Interim Report, and the company achieved operating income of 36 in the first half of 2019.

880,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

18%; net profit attributable to mother 23.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.

38%; net profit after deduction to mother 22.

580,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

97%.

Among them, the net profit attributable to the mother in the second quarter was 12.

$ 7.4 billion, an increase of 12 per year.

41%, an increase of 12.

27%.

Basic income is 0.

3725 yuan, an annual increase of 14.

40%.

Performance 深圳SPA会所 is in line with our expectations.

  Comment: Outward mergers and acquisitions have resulted in increased expressway revenue and operating profit growth of 24%: The investment and operation segment is the company’s main contribution point in revenue and profits. The company’s expressway operation segment consolidated toll revenue in the first half of 2019 was approximately 24.

1 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

The revenue growth was mainly at 6% in April 2018. In July and July, the company consolidated the Yuqian, Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway, and Fufu projects, leading to an increase in toll revenue in the first half of 2019 compared to the same period last year4.

600 million US dollars, excluding this factor, the company’s constant toll revenue from property production increased by 3.

3%.

In the photovoltaic 苏州桑拿网 sector, each photovoltaic power generation achieved grid-connected power in the first half of the year.

2.5 billion kWh, revenue from power generation1.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 3 in ten years.

1%, 2.

0%.

On the whole, the investment and operation segment realized operating profit.

7 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

3%, an increase of about 3 per year.

1 ppm, which supplements and consolidates the items in Table 3 to increase operating profit2.

50,000 yuan, constant high-speed and photovoltaic projects increase operating profit by about 0.

6 ppm, an increase of 5% in about ten years.

  Risk Warning: Changes in the highway industry policy, new acquisitions are less profitable than expected, and the macroeconomic downturn affects toll income.

Jiantou Energy (000600): Falling coal prices, profit margins, flexible electricity price reform, price increase space

Jiantou Energy (000600): Falling coal prices, profit margins, flexible electricity price reform, price increase space

A brief evaluation of performance The company achieved operating income of 101 in the third quarter of 2019.

79 ppm, a reduction of 0 per year.

68%, net profit attributable to mother is 4.

64 ppm, an increase of 63 in ten years.

89%.

Operating analysis Coal prices continue to decline, and profit elasticity is gradually released: 2019 coal prices continued to decline after a slight rebound in the first quarter. At present, Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices have fallen to 572 yuan / ton, which is 13 yuan / ton lower than the average price in the fourth quarter of last year.17 yuan / ton lower than the average price in the first quarter of this year.

The company is the main thermal power generation enterprise in Hebei Province. The fourth quarter of Hebei Province is located in the peak season, which is the period of release of the company’s main performance. At the same time, the company ‘s share of the company ‘s net profit decreased in the third quarter and the company ‘s investment income decreased.Slow, but the company’s main thermal power business has been significantly affected. It is expected that coal prices will continue to decline in the fourth quarter, and continued growth in fuel costs will increase and increase company profits.

A good supply and demand structure 佛山桑拿网 brought by unique location advantages: 9 power generation companies controlled by 1H2019 have completed a total of 199 power generation.

2.6 billion kilowatt-hours, 185 completed grid-connected electricity.

At 8.8 billion kWh, the average utilization hours of generating units was 2,555 hours, which was higher than the national average utilization hours of thermal power of 489 hours.

The average on-grid price of the company’s holding power generation company is 317.

59 yuan / MWh, an increase of 0 in ten years.

20%.

The unique location advantage of Hebei Province brings a good supply and demand pattern, which is further transformed into the company’s advantage in average generation time and increase in average on-grid electricity prices.

Marketization + floating price enhances profit certainty and helps the thermal power sector forecast return: Under the dual-track system of “market coal, regulating electricity”, the PE power level of the thermal power sector varies between 8-38 times, which leads to PE’s estimated guidance for the overall thermal power sector.weak.

We believe that after the coal power reform policy is introduced, the electricity marketization + floating price pricing mechanism will be conducive to the stable change in the profitability of thermal power, enhance the public utility attributes, change the sector investment logic, and the sector PB is expected to change from the current zero.

99 times increase to PB estimate 1.

4-1.

7 times.

Investment Suggestions We estimate the company’s revenue in 2019-2021 to be 150,162,17.1 billion, and the net profit attributable to the mother is 8.

11, 9.

69 and 11.

86 trillion, EPS is 0.

45, 0.

54 and 0.

66 yuan, corresponding to PE of 11, 9 and 8 times in 2019-2021, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest that the decline in coal prices did not meet expectations; the benchmark electricity price was lowered; and the scale of Hebei’s outsourced electricity purchases expanded.

China Southern Airlines (600029) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Performance Meets Expectations Double Hub Leader Set Off

China Southern Airlines (600029) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Performance Meets Expectations Double Hub Leader Set Off

Core point of view The strong disturbance of the oil price exchange rate dragged down the company’s performance, and the decrease in the deduction of foreign exchange profits narrowed to 11.

1%.

The company quickly promoted the “Guangzhou-Beijing” layout, and the dual hub leader set sail again.

Baiyun Airport always leads the front line in heavy volume, as the main base airline company may obviously benefit.

The expected demand for supply has improved, and the layout window may come.

In 2018, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother decreased by 55%, and the maximum decline in the deduction of foreign exchange profits narrowed to 11.

1%.

In 2018, the company realized operating income of 14.36 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.

7%; realized net return / deduction of non-net profit is 29 respectively.

8 billion / 23.

400 million, down 49 every year.

6% / 55.

1%; the corresponding return is 0.

28 yuan, the gross profit margin was relatively reduced by 1.

9 to 10 pieces.

5%.

Among them, Q4 achieved a 10% increase in revenue.

8% to 347.

3 billion, net profit may be 11.

900 million, at least 2017Q4 may be 11.

The 400 million scale expansion may be caused by the decrease in Q4 demand company RASK by 1%.

Oilseed disturbances dragged down performance in 2018.

1%.

Domestic and international passenger-kilometer revenue also increased by 1.

9%, 5.

4%, load factor increased by 0.

2pct, the three rates will be reduced by 1.

One.

The company’s ASK increased by 12 in 2018.

0%, the net introduction of 86 aircraft increased by 11.

4%, the growth rate of operation and investment is ahead of the three major airlines.

Passenger load factor increased by 0.

23pct to 82.

4%, of which domestic and international routes rose by 0.

25/0.

26 points.

Passenger-kilometer revenue was more than flat, with domestic and international routes both increasing by one.

9%, 5.4%, international line revenue improved significantly.

The company’s operating costs increased by 15 in 2018.

2% to 1286.

100 million, higher than the growth rate of income 2.

5.

Affected by exchange rate losses and an increase in average borrowing surplus, financial expenses have increased by an additional 355 per year.

7% to 51.

100 million, but 夜来香体验网 the three rates after deduction of foreign exchange fell by 1 year-on-year.

1 to 9.

8%.

In 2018, the company’s exchange loss was 1.7 billion, the price increase or contributed to nearly 70% increase in aviation fuel costs, and the cost of deducting fuel per unit kilometers was downgraded4.

2%.

The company’s exchange loss in 2018 was 17.

400 million significant drag on performance, the exchange gains in the same period of 201717.

900 million, a decrease of 35 previously.

3 billion.

As of March 28, the receipt of the exchange rate between the Japanese currency and the US dollar was 6.
.

74, an earlier appreciation of 2.

0%, contributing a positive improvement for the time being.

In 2018, the company’s jet fuel cost increased by 34.

6% to 429.

2 billion, the increase in jet fuel prices is expected to contribute nearly 70% increase.

The company’s oil deduction costs increased by 7 in 2018.

4%, the unit deduction cost of oil is reduced by 4 per year.

2% to 0.

27 yuan, cost control continues to advance.

The departure of the dual hub layout will benefit Baiyun Airport from time to time, and demand will improve or transition.

On March 6, the Civil Aviation Administration of China announced 10 international routes to Beijing Daxing Airport. The company quickly promoted the “Guangzhou-Beijing” dual hub layout, and the route network, especially the international route layout, may have improved significantly.

The average daily flight volume at the main base Baiyun Airport in the summer and autumn of the 2019 season increased by 4.

8 pieces to 6.

5%, always leading the first-tier airport.

The average daily volume of international flights at Baiyun Airport increased by 15.

3%, international acceleration companies may benefit significantly.

B737MAX8 has suspended airworthiness certification, and may account for more than 30% of the company ‘s net introduction of aircraft in 2019, for delivery or upgrade.

The adjustment of the Beijing World Garden Festival and the May Day holiday will stimulate or accelerate the improvement in demand. April may be the starting point for the upward trend of demand.

Risk factors: The macroeconomic downturn exceeded expectations; the RMB depreciated sharply; international oil prices have grown rapidly.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The oil exchange turmoil in 2018 dragged down the company’s performance, and the maximum decrease in foreign exchange deduction margins narrowed to 11.

1%.
We adjusted our net profit forecast for 2019-2021.
4 billion / 88.

600 million / 98.

1 ppm (previous forecast was 7.8 billion / 87 trillion in 2019-20, and it will be new in 2021), with a slight adjustment of 19/20/21 to 0.

64/0.

72/0.

80 yuan.

.
B737MAX8 may account for more than 30% of the company ‘s net introduction, which will benefit Baiyun Airport’s heavy volume at all times, and demand will improve or change.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Huaqiang Fangte (834793): Financing capacity supports future expansion speed

Huaqiang Fangte (834793): Financing capacity supports future expansion speed

The company’s recent situation The CSRC has accepted Huaqiang Fangte’s “IPO and listing on the GEM” materials to comment on unique theme park models: 1) Huaqiangfang’s specific location is a theme park in China’s third and fourth tier markets, avoiding the theme of first and second tier marketsThe fierce competition in the park can also benefit from the demographic dividend of the third and fourth tier markets in China.

2) In the “2018 Global Theme Parks and Museums Report” released by AECOM, Huaqiang Fangte ranked fifth in the world with 42.07 million tourists, which is the fifth consecutive year.

The # 1 Disney Group visitor in 20181.

With 5.7 billion person-times, Huaqiang Fangte’s tourist volume reached 27% of Disney’s.

3) Disney usually uses IP. Huaqiang Fangte uses Chinese traditional cultural stories as IP and uses special film technology to perform interpretation. This reduces the knowledge of IP creation and can be copied in batches, which has the advantage of business model.

Rapid expansion requires a lot of funds: 1) Huaqiang Fangte has built 20 theme parks across the country. The company plans to quickly build 30-40 in the next few years. We expect to build 4 themes in Jiayuguan, Changsha, Handan, Jingzhouparadise.

The company also looks forward to overseas expansion.

2) The theme park is an asset-heavy project.

In 2018, the company had 1 billion fixed assets, accounting for 56% of total assets; depreciation of fixed assets accounted for 18% of total revenue.

3) The company’s future planning requires a large 无锡桑拿网 amount of asset investment.

The company raised funds in 2016 and 2017.

As the financing capacity of the new three editions declines, the company needs to realize new financing through IPO.

The company is currently planning an IPO and the shares have been suspended.

Due to a three-year audit, the company has recently made error adjustments to the three-year statements for 2016, 2017, and 2018 (the net profit adjustment is small and not significant).

On June 20, the China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed that the China Securities Regulatory Commission had revoked the materials of Huaqiang Fangte Culture and Technology Group Co., Ltd.’s IPO and listing on the Growth Enterprise Market.

It is estimated that the EPS forecast for 2019/20 is maintained at 0.

87/1.

03 yuan.

Maintain Outperform rating and 深圳桑拿网 target price of 16.

00 yuan, corresponding to 18x / 16x 2019 / 20e P / E, 19% increase space.

The company currently expects 15x / 13x 2019 / 20e P / E.

Risks and severe weather; the animation industry is developing less than expected; international theme parks have accelerated their entry into China.

Tianqi Lithium (002466) Semi-annual Report Comment: Lithium salt production capacity is gradually put in

Tianqi Lithium (002466) Semi-annual Report Comment: Lithium salt production capacity is gradually put in

I. Event Overview Tianqi Lithium Industry released its semi-annual report for 2019 on the evening of August 22.

Report the core company’s operating income 25.

90 ‰, a decrease of 21 per year.

28%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

9.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 85.

twenty three%.

Second, the analysis and judgment of the lithium base period effect dragged down the performance. Profit growth is expected to bottom out during the year. The trend of the report will suddenly drop in 2019H1.

47% to 61.

07%, of which the lithium ore business cost is stable but revenue, gross profit margin decreased slightly, revenue decreased by 9.

76%, gross margin blood pressure 2.

52 good to 73.

64%, maintaining a high gross profit margin level; the average price of lithium compounds and derivatives suddenly fell by 46.

With a 55% impact, revenue fell 27.

48%, operating costs rose 16.

77%, gross margin decreased by 17.

95 up to 52.

63%.

In our opinion, the company holds the world-class high-quality spodumene mine Thalesen and the highest-grade brine area SQM, which effectively locks the impact of upstream raw material costs; the current price of lithium compounds continues to be limited, and the company must overcome its ability to resist price fluctuations.

At the same time, the impact of the lithium carbonate price base period is gradually eliminated, and the profit growth rate is expected to rebound at the end of the year.

The impact of financial expenses continues to ferment, multi-channel financing to improve funding pressure, and non-main income, due to financial management income, hedging and other factors led to increased investment income.

11%, driving non-operating income consumption growth by 13.

13%, while non-operating costs remained stable.

On the expense side, financial expenses and R & D expenses increased, of which the company completed the acquisition of SQM (23.

77%) increase of $ 3.5 billion in M & A loans, resulting in a large increase in financial costs (666.

26%); the company increased investment in research and development, R & D costs rose by more than 231.

97%; while sales expenses and management expenses increased relatively stable by 9 respectively.

83% 天津夜网 and 3.

twenty one%.

The company intends to repay the debt pressure through various fundraising channels such as corporate bonds and convertible bonds. If the issue is successful, it is expected to effectively reduce the pressure on funds.

The company is deeply cultivating the lithium salt industry chain, and its performance potential is constantly being released. The upstream resources and production capacity continue to expand. The Thalesen Phase II and Phase III projects are expected to be put into production in the third quarter and 2020, respectively, and will increase production capacity to 134 Euros / year (LCE16).

8 seconds), 180 seconds / year (LCE22.

5 initial).

At the same time SQM (25.

86% equity) actively expand production. The company plans to expand its lithium carbonate production capacity to 1成都桑拿网2 digits / year and 18 digits / year by 2019 and 2021.

In the context of rising resource output, downstream lithium salt processing production lines have also been gradually put into operation, and the two-phase lithium hydroxide project at Quinana (total of 4).

8 initial), Suining lithium carbonate project (2 initial) will also gradually release capacity in 2019.

Zhangjiagang Base and Shehong Base are expected to increase their production capacity and efficiency after the technological transformation.

At the same time, the long-term long-term supply agreement between the subsidiary and LG Chem locks in long-term demand. The company deeply cultivates the lithium salt industry chain and has the advantages of high-quality resources and capacity scale, and certain pricing power in certain industries.

As the price of lithium carbonate has gradually stabilized, the demand represented by new energy vehicles has gradually increased, and the release of long-term capacity has promoted the company’s performance.

Third, the investment proposal considers that the company gradually improves the layout of the lithium industry chain, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles downstream has gradually increased, and the current price of lithium carbonate has gradually stabilized.

56/1.

99/2.

54 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 15/12 / 10X.

At present, the price-earnings ratio of Tianqi Lithium is in the low quantile position of 27% since listing, and it is given a “recommended” rating.

Fourth, risk warning: lithium prices fell more than expected, downstream demand exceeded expectations

Jiantou Energy (000600): 19H1 is in line with expected counter-cyclical attributes

Jiantou Energy (000600): 19H1 is in line with expected counter-cyclical attributes

19H1 is in line with expectations, optimistic that coal prices will accelerate downward and 19H1 companies will achieve 69 revenue.

700 million (previously +1.

5%), to achieve net profit attributable to mother 3.

9.2 billion (previously +108.

2%), net of non-attributed net profit3.

8 billion (previously +112.

6%), with a profit forecast for Air Force performance 3.

9.1 billion were basically the same, with performance in line with expectations.

The company’s Q2 single-quarter net profit attributable to its mother was 79.23 million yuan, which turned around every year.

As a leading coal-fired power company in Hebei, the company’s unit price of standard coal entering the furnace in 19H1 continued to drop by 5.

At 4%, we are optimistic that the 19H2 coal price will accelerate downward and the company’s profit is expected to continue to improve.

Maintain 19-19 profit forecast8.

6/11.

6/13.

600 million, the company is expected to BPS6 in 19 years.

50 yuan, refer to the comparable company’s 19-year average P / B ratio of 1.

1x, giving the company 19 years 1.

0-1.

2x target P / B, corresponding to target price 6.

50-7.

80 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

The income in the second quarter was under pressure, and the counter-cyclical nature showed that the company achieved revenue of 28 in the second quarter alone.

9.6 billion, down by 1 every year.

9%, realized net profit attributable to mothers 79.23 million yuan (repeated 12.1 million yuan in the same period last year), net profit attributable to non-mothers deducted 74.18 million yuan (19.19 million yuan in the same period last year)

Benefiting from the decline in coal prices, the company Q2 smoothly reversed its losses during the period of revenue. During the hours of downward use, the decline in coal prices changed, and the counter-cyclical nature appeared.

In the first half of the year, the company’s standard coal price was 613.

31 yuan, down 5 before.

4%, 19Q1 / Q2 Qingang Q5500 power end coal average price is only 602/609 yuan / ton, continuous decline of 98/19 yuan / ton, July to date (2019/8/23) Qingang Q5500 power end coal price only590 yuan / ton, temporarily down 48 yuan / ton (-7.

5%), the trend of coal prices in the peak season is not strong again.

We judge the company’s 19H2 results are expected to continue to improve with the decline in coal prices.

Maintaining good expense control and improving efficiency significantly increased the company’s financial expense ratio in 2Q19, and the management expense ratio achieved effective decline.

The company’s financial expenses in the second quarter of 19 4.

4%, a decline of 0 per year.

49 points, management cost 4.

6%, down by 1 every year.

0pct.

The company effectively controlled expenses while operating profit continued to improve, and its operating efficiency continued to improve.

As of the end of June 19, the company’s asset compensation was renewed.3%, a decline of 0 per year.

75pct, keep the business stable.

In addition, the company announced on July 25 that the company’s proposed acquisition of the group’s 上海夜网论坛 power assets had not been approved by the Securities and Futures Commission’s M & A and Reorganization Committee, and the potential dilutive BPS incident was lifted.

In addition, the holding power plant of No. 1 Thermal Power Plant has successfully completed 168 trial operation of commercial operations on July 9. The integration of 2 * 350,000 kilowatts of Zunhua Thermal Power plant will help smooth commissioning and increase the company’s profit margin.

Maintain profit forecast and maintain “Buy” rating. We are optimistic about the accelerated decline of 19H2 coal price, and the company’s profit is expected to continue to improve.

Maintain 19-19 profit forecast8.

6/11.

6/13.

600 million, the company is expected to BPS6 in 19 years.

50 yuan, with reference to comparable company’s 19-year average P / B ratio of 1.
佛山桑拿网

1x, giving the company 19 years 1.

0-1.

2x target P / B, corresponding to target price 6.

50-7.

80 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: Coal prices fell less than expected, reducing utilization hours / risk of falling electricity prices.